Exactly a year ago, the election of Donald J. Trump as US President shook the world. Trump’s divisive campaign relegated all established political conventions to the dustbin. For Hillary Clinton and her Democrats, the only thing harder than the unexpected loss was to explain that loss. Few people really understood the Trump phenomenon; fewer still could explain it. Even a year later, what Trump really wants for his people and the world at large eludes a lot of folks.
As with most narratives, building one on Trump will be a futile, misleading exercise. However, one can see some emergent patterns of this chaos presidency. It remains to be seen whether those patterns, observed in the year since the reality TV star became the leader of the free world, hold up in subsequent years.
The Trump presidency’s defining aspect so far has been the Russian affair. A series of political missteps led to the appointment of a special prosecutor, who is actively investigating the nature and scale of Trump campaign’s ties to Russian officials during the 2016 campaign. Already bogged down in this legal mess, Trump received a setback last week when his former campaign manager was indicted. The Russia saga may not bring Trump presidency down, but it will surely sap his administration’s energies.
The Trump team has had zero legislative success so far on major campaign promises, such as repealing Obamacare, spending big on infrastructure, rescinding the Iran nuclear deal, and passing sweeping tax reforms. After those legislative stumbles, Trump hasn’t been on good terms with rest of the congressional Republican leadership and has threatened to cut deals with the Democrats instead. This pattern may last until the 2018 mid-terms, hurting the Republican chances to hold their congressional majorities.
Another noticeable aspect is the outsized influence ‘generals’ are exercising on a US presidency. Trump’s chief of staff, national security advisor, and defence secretary are all generals, with aggressive styles. It’s almost a coup, some observers fret. The generals seem aware that if given a choice between offense and restraint, Trump, the commander-in-chief of the mightiest military on earth, would choose firepower. That’s reflected in Trump’s bellicose posture towards Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea.
On the international stage, Trump team initially tried the bilateral approach to turn trade, defence and security treaties to their advantage. The hawks persuaded Trump to renegotiate Nafta and pull out from the Paris Climate Accord. Subsequently they faced resistance from allies in Europe and Asia Pacific.
America projects its power abroad through a combination of its soft power (alliances and development diplomacy) and hard power (military). A pivot back to multilateralism has been obvious lately.
Despite his erratic and flawed presidency, Trump still has no serious challenger in the ring. The Democratic Party is in disarray, with no leader to calm restless activists or shape a coherent message to expose Trump’s populism. The ‘resistance’ did start early on, e.g. in the wake of a couple of Trump executive orders barring nationals of some Muslim-majority countries from entering US. But such outrage isn’t enough for the Democrats to win over the disaffected voters who stayed home or voted for Trump.
Democrats should worry because under Trump, the US economy is doing significantly better, which some analysts attribute to his ‘America First’ campaigning and some regulatory rollbacks. If Trump keeps on delivering on the fundamentals, enough folks may again overlook his phenomenal diplomatic and political gaffes. Trump’s approval ratings have been languishing really low. But if he is gets something concrete done legislatively and becomes a less polarizing figure, his prospects for re-election will look good.
Over at home, too, the Trump ripples have been deeply felt. The administration’s South Asia strategy – which sought to strong-arm Pakistan and offer India a greater role in Afghanistan – kicked up frenzy in Pakistani power centers. The acrimony has subsided lately. But it’s naïve to expect US-Pak relations to be put back on an even keel soon. Trump’s generals have old scores to settle in Afghanistan, while Pakistan’s decision-makers today seem much more comfortable going the extra mile with the mighty Chinese.
The world felt like a different place on November 9, 2016. But people are gradually adjusting to the reality of Trump and all its unusual consequences. It is too early to say where in history – annals, chronicle, or history proper – Trump will find his place. But one thing can still be said about an angry America: its stature as a beacon of hope for rest of the world stands diminished today.