It takes time - and some familiarity with his political career - to decode Pir Pagara's cryptic quotes. But his quotes deserve to be carefully heard and read since he enjoys the reputation as the GHQ's moniker, especially in time of political crises in the country. So now that a kind of uncertainty hangs low over the political system in the country, his call for a merger of all the Muslim Leagues has cocked up many an ear.
That the PML (Q) top leadership had turned up, almost unannounced, at the Kingri House in Karachi and pledged loyalty to Pir Sahib, is indeed intriguing, as to what is cooking up and which way the wind is blowing. Of course, legally speaking, a 'merger' of the PML (Q) with Pagara-headed PML (Functional) may not be possible, but the timeliness of the meeting cannot be overlooked.
Unless Pir Sahib had spoken less cryptically and Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain more lucidly, one could sketch a relatively clearer picture of the Gilani government's future. But that's not the case, obliging one to think of several possibilities. One that looks more likely is that all the factions of the Muslim League rally around Pir Pagara, giving him the mandate to nominate a candidate for the prime ministership. No wonder then that he has invited Nawaz Sharif also, even when the latter has promised not to ditch Prime Minister Gilani - provided the latter fits the bill as a kind of antithesis of President Zardari. But what if Pir Sahib offers Nawaz Sharif to head the unified "All Pakistan Muslim League"? Pir Pagara is not a wild card in the national politics; if the past is any guide, he is invariably activated when the Establishment makes up its mind to effect a change in the status quo.
However, it is not difficult either to argue that Pir Sahib's move is not hostile to the present set-up, of which his party is a coalition partner. He may be working at finding a substitute for the blow-hot-blow-cold relationship between the Gilani-led government and Nawaz Sharif-headed PML (N) by making a pitch for Shujaat's PML (Q), and thus inject some calm into the presently quarrelsome relationship between the Federal government and Punjab government. The PPP and PML (Q) can muster the desired numerical strength in the Centre, and possibly in Punjab also - if we recall how things were manipulated in the bygone days to put Manzoor Wattoo in the Chief Minister's office in Lahore. Admitted, such a change in the coalition partnership is not likely to improve the reality on the ground that remains bitter and unacceptable, but it does have the potential to serve as a diversion.
It is also possible that Pir Sahib and his callers at the Kingri House were late by a day or so in presenting themselves as a potential alternative to the Zardari-Gilani set-up. As speculation about a possible change of ruling set-up thickened in the Capital and across the country, the PPP top brass met for an incisive review. One unmistakable, and quite palpable, outcome of the review is a stronger Gilani, who since then, has taken no time not only in jettisoning the NRO beneficiaries (read Zardari's men) but also challenged his political detractors to bring their much-talked about vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly against him. Given, that Yousuf Raza Gilani is not prone to using strong language and offensive posturing; his latest statements can be mistaken for his last hurrah. Indeed, it is all very confusing, a tragedy made all the more grim when seen against the apocalyptic setting where hundreds of thousands are stranded on broken embankments under open skies for days and weeks without much of help and hope.