China said on Thursday it will not bow to pressure to rethink a key climate change treaty and was preparing to cope with a "gap" in the pact after 2012 if rich nations fail to add new greenhouse gas goals in time. Envoys from 177 governments are holding week-long talks in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin on the shape of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol, the UN's main weapon in the fight against climate change.
Kyoto's first phase, which binds about 40 rich nations to meet emissions targets, expires in 2012 and it is not clear on what happens after that, worrying investors who want long-term certainty on climate policies and financing. "Of course, now we're discussing the legal issues if it happens," said Su Wei, a senior Chinese climate change negotiator, referring to a possible gap in Kyoto. "I think that from a practical angle that is necessary, but it seems a bit early, prejudging the negotiations," he added.
The United Nations has been stepping up efforts to convince countries to avoid a gap after 2012 and to ensure certainty for the UN's $2.7 billion carbon market that is part of Kyoto.
This is a game of bargaining "chicken" between rich economies and emerging powers that could trouble a higher level meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in less than two months intended to lay the foundations for a new, legally binding climate deal. Talks have snagged on distrust between rich and poorer nations, especially over how to share reducing emissions, called "mitigation", to avoid dangerous climate change, which could trigger more extreme weather, crop failures and rising seas.
"In order to square the circle, mitigation is still a key issue," said Vicente Paulo Yu, a development expert attending the talks for the Philippines. "We have to get something from developed countries in terms of their commitments and something in terms of developing countries' actions."
Nearly all wealthy countries have signed up to legally binding emissions goals under Kyoto, with the big exception of the United States, which refused to become a party. Developing nations, including the world's top carbon emitter China, are obliged to take voluntary steps to curb the growth of their emissions. The United States and other rich nations want a new global pact to do away with that either-or division to reflect the surge in emissions from the developing world, now accounting for more than half of mankind's annual greenhouse gas emissions. "It's about trust and about sharing the burden of emissions reductions," said Nina Jamal, a climate policy campaigner observing the talks in Tianjin.
"If we don't have progress on the mitigation agenda, there might be a risk that the other negotiation topics would be delayed." Talks last year failed to agree on a binding treaty and climaxed in a bitter meeting in Copenhagen, which produced a non-binding accord that later recorded the emissions vows of participant countries. The question now is whether those pledges are formalised under Kyoto or under a new treaty. Under a new deal, rich nations want China and other big emerging emitters to bring their domestic reduction efforts under firmer international vetting.
Su told Reuters his government would not bend to Western demands and was reluctantly thinking about how to handle the likelihood that the first phase of Kyoto could expire with no full legal extension to replace it. Su said rich nations were to blame for failing to offer make greenhouse gas vows for Kyoto in time to ensure a seamless extension of the agreement from 2013. "Even if Cancun makes no decision on the developed countries' emission targets in the second phase (of Kyoto), then after Cancun we'll accelerate the process. I think that at the most we can't delay it beyond a year."