Australia, New Zealand dollars seen hanging onto steep gains

11 Oct, 2010

The surging Australian dollar is seen pulling back slightly in coming months but is still forecast to stay high above 90 US cents as lofty domestic interest rates attract yield-hungry investors. Around 50 analysts polled forecast the Australian dollar may fly high between $0.9500 and $0.9690 in the next one to six months.
In the next one year, the median forecast was for a retreat to $0.9200, down from Friday's $0.9825, a near 28-year peak. Yet, the range of forecasts for the next 12 months was far and wide, varying from as low as $0.7000 to as high as $1.0700.
For the 10 analysts who thought the Australian dollar could hit parity - or one-to-one - against the US dollar in the next one year, most were counting on the US dollar to continue to struggle on loose US monetary policy.
History shows the market is rarely successful in foreseeing the Australian dollar's performance. A poll in September showed analysts thought then it would ease to $0.8800 and $0.8900 over the next one to 12 months. Instead, it has rallied 10 percent since the start of September to as high as $0.9918.

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