Thailand, the world's biggest rice exporter, could export at least 8.5 million tonnes of rice in 2011 as demand is expected to remain strong, the Thai Rice Exporters Association said on Wednesday. However, that may depend on whether India resumes exports, and prices were likely to be volatile due to the rise in the Thai baht and erratic weather, Korbsook Iamsuree, president of the association, told Reuters.
"The 8.5 million tonnes target is a conservative forecast as we expect that demand should remain strong since key buyers will continue to import, such as the Philippines and Indonesia," she said on the sidelines of a rice meeting on the Thai island of Phuket. "In fact, we could sell more than 8.5 million next year if the baht is not too strong," she added.
The Thai currency has risen nearly 12 percent against the dollar this year, forcing Thai exporters to offer at uncompetitive prices, which has allowed rivals such as Vietnam to steal market share. Thailand generally exports between 8.5 million and 9.5 million tonnes of rice annually, and that is the range expected this year. In 2009 it shipped 8.6 million tonnes.
Its 5 percent broken grade white rice was quoted at $475-$480 a tonne on Wednesday, well above the same grade of Vietnamese rice at $365-$375, traders said. Korbsook said China was expected to buy more rice in 2011 after its crop was badly damaged by floods and landslides this year. It bought 600,000 tonnes of Vietnamese rice in August. "China may buy more than 1 million tonnes of rice next year, as we can see that it was hit by several disasters recently," Korbsook said.
Thailand's benchmark 100 percent B grade white rice was offered at $505 per tonne on Wednesday, up from last week's $500 per tonne, and traders said that was mainly attributable to the strength of the baht.