British house prices fell last month at their fastest pace in 18 months and manufacturing growth slowed, according to data on Tuesday that flagged the risk of a sharp slowdown in the coming months. Disappointing trade data and a downbeat assessment from the British Retail Consortium added to worries that overseas demand will be insufficient to compensate for domestic headwinds next year as a result of hefty public spending cuts, and a rise in value added tax.
Britain's economy enjoyed its best six-month performance in a decade between April and September, but few economists expect that pace to be maintained. The Bank of England will publish new quarterly forecasts on Wednesday that are likely to show growth slowing in the first half of 2011. The BoE has indicated a willingness to pump more money into the economy via asset purchases should economic conditions deteriorate, but stubborn inflationary pressures could limit its room for manoeuvre.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' house price index dropped to -49 in the three months to October, below even the most pessimistic forecast in a Reuters poll, from -36 in the three months to September. Surveyors blamed a lack of mortgage finance and an uncertain economic outlook for the weakness of buyer demand and predicted further losses to come. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed manufacturing output grew just 0.1 percent in September, its weakest rate since April, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in August.