Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace the other day, senior Republican Party Senator John McCain made some valid and invalid assertions vis-a-vis Afghanistan situation. Understandably, he warned the Obama administration against pulling out of Afghanistan "before positive conditions can be shaped and sustained on the ground."
Before withdrawal the US, of course, needs to secure foolproof guarantees that the post-war Afghanistan will not serve as a sanctuary to al Qaeda. But McCain also linked creation of 'positive conditions' to Indian security, saying the consequences would "certainly be terrible for us, but they will even be worse for India, which will have a terrorist safe haven on its periphery." He went on to aver that he can think of few more immediate ways to damage the US-India relationship - and to convince India that the United States is both a declining power and an unreliable partners - than for us to pull out of Afghanistan before achieving our goals."
The US is eager to please India with which it has a long-term strategic partnership to pursue. President Obama's visit is aimed mainly at strengthening the relationship in ways that would boost economic productivity in the US and create badly needed new jobs. However, it would be a mistake on part of the influential politicians like Senator McCain, whose Republican Party has just recently made major gains in congressional elections, to try and win India's friendship by pushing its 'goals' in Afghanistan. As regards his worry about his country's status, it may be difficult to accept, but it indeed is a reality that the US is a declining power. So far as the reliability factor is concerned, that too does not need much convincing. Countries do what their interests dictate. The US will remain a reliable friend of India, or Pakistan, as long as its interests so require. However, if that means US has to help India achieve its objectives in Afghanistan that would be a recipe for trouble. Pakistan would not sit idle, nor would the other regional players.
Afghanistan has suffered too long and hard for over thirty years as a battleground for outsiders. It must not become an arena of regional rivalries in the years to come. Pakistan being an immediate neighbour that bore the brunt of unending conflict across its north-western frontier, has a great stake in what happens there. It would expect to see a friendly government in Kabul after the war ends. Islamabad's foreign policy establishment though must disabuse itself of the 'strategic depth' idea. No country has any business looking for strategic depth in another's territory. By the same token, it is not for the US to back India for the achievement of its goals in Afghanistan in order to protect and promote its own reputation as a superpower and a reliable partner. An Afghanistan at peace with itself is the best bet for peace and security in this region, and beyond.