Private US crop analyst Michael Cordonnier said Tuesday he lowered his 2010/11 soyabean and corn crop projections for Brazil and Argentina due to dry weather caused by the La Nina weather pattern and late seeding in some key production areas.
The soya crop in Brazil, the world's No 2 exporter behind the United States, was seen at 67 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from a prior estimate and down from last season's 69 million-tonne crop, said Cordonnier, agronomist at Soyabean and Corn Advisor Inc in Hinsdale, Illinois.
The outlook was also below recent government and private estimates, including a forecast by Conab, Brazil's government crop supply agency, which this month projected the crop at 67.7 million to 69 million tonnes. The US Agriculture Department this month pegged Brazil's soya crop at 67.5 million tonnes.
Cordinnier said he cut his Brazilian soya outlook mostly due to excessive dryness in Rio Grande Do Sul in southern Brazil, parts of which have gone three weeks or more without rain. There had been some concern that planting delays due to dry October weather in top soya state Mato Grosso in central Brazil would drag down the country's soyabean output, but the weather there has since improved, he said.
Cordonnier pegged Argentina's soya crop at 50 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from his prior forecast for the world's No 3 soyabean exporting nation and down from 54.5 million tonnes last year. Argentina's Agriculture Ministry and the USDA have both estimated the country's soya crop at 52 million tonnes, but the Rosario Grains Exchange last week lowered its estimate to 49.5 million tonnes, citing dry weather.
Delayed seeding could also put some of the crop at risk of late season weather problems such as frost or freeze, he added. Cordonnier also lowered his corn crop estimates due to dry weather in Argentina and southern Brazil and because the late planted soya crop in central Brazil would reduce the second corn crop known as the Safrinha, which is planted after soyabeans are harvested.