Russian winter grain output in 2011 may be 37.5 million tonnes, up from a drought-hit 32 million tonne crop in 2010 but down from the 45.3 million reaped in 2009, a leading analyst said on Wednesday. "Although in the main grain-growing regions the share of sowings in bad shape is higher than a year ago.
But, with the sole exception for the Southern federal district, it is lower than the 2005-2009 average," Andrei Sizov, President and CEO of SovEcon agricultural analysts, said. "However, in the Southern Federal District "bad shape" only means plants have not sprouted because of a delay in the sowing campaign. Many plants may yet sprout if the weather conditions are favourable," he told a conference of traders and corporate analysts.
SovEcon believes the winter wheat crop may be 33 million tonnes in 2011, up from 28.2 million in 2010, but down from 38.95 million tonnes in 2009. "The forecast at the current stage is based on average outcome in the last few years. It is strictly preliminary and may be revised downwards or upwards depending on the weather factor," Sizov said.
SovEcon expects total Russia's 2011 grain crop to be in the range of 75-85 million tonnes compared to 60.3 million tonnes in 2010 and 97 million tonnes in 2008. "This (volume) will permit reducing tension on the domestic market, however the country's exportable surplus will depend exclusively on the capacities of North Caucasus, so an extension of the export ban is seen as highly probable," Sizov said.
Russia, hit by a severe drought over the summer, has imposed a ban on grain and flour exports from August 15 2010 to July 1 2011. It plans to reopen flour exports from January 1. The government has promised to release grain from its 9.6 million tonne intervention stocks to curtail rising prices in the first quarter of 2011, so that grain could reach regions worst hit by the drought by March.