Cocoa futures retreated for the first time in five sessions Wednesday on profit-taking as investors sat back to see if the political stalemate in top grower Ivory Cooast would end, analysts said Alasanne Ouattara and rival President Laurent Gbagbo remained locked in a bitter struggle for power in Ivory Coast.
The UN and Abidjan's West African neighbours have declared Ouattara the victor, while the army-backed Gbagbo insists he won the contest. Analysts said the market has priced in the row and possible risk of cocoa shipment disruptions. The trade is now waiting to see if the impasse will lead to a repeat of the civil war which split the country in 2002 and halt bean exports alltogether.
The key March cocoa contract on ICE Futures US fell $49 to end at $3,035 per tonne. On Tuesday, the contract finished at a four-month high of $3,084, having gained nearly 12 percent in the preceding four sessions. "Short term, the risk is real," Jean-Marc Anga, Executive Director of the International Cocoa Organisation, told Reuters in a telephone interview hours after returning from Ivory Coast.
James Cordier, an analyst for brokers optionsellers.com in Florida, said the presidential deadlock "has been priced in" and the highs for this phase of the move has been set. Sugar futures ground higher on speculative short-covering while coffee was mixed for the day.
Alex Oliveira, senior sugar analyst at brokers Newedge USA, said the amounts of Indian sugar exports at this time range from 500,000 to 1.0 million tonnes. The raw sugar market hit a 30-year high over 33 cents last month, but has struggled since as it fell over 20 percent from its peak. New York's March raw sugar contract rose 0.57 cent to end at 28.98 cents per lb.
The market also derived support from expectations of a sugar deficit in China. The Asian country faces a sugar shortfall of more than 2 million tonnes this crop year, the third straight deficit as consumption outpaces production growth, the official China Securities Journal reported on Wednesday.
Coffee futures were mixed, with traders saying roaster and investor buying showing up around the $1.98-$2.01/lb level, while sellers hovered around $2.10-2.13, basis March. New York's March arabica coffee contract eased 3.25 cents to close at $2.0465 per lb.