Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 30-month high on Monday, bolstered by concerns over supply tightness during the monsoon season and a firmer Chinese soyaoil market. "Production is going to fall in December, as output has been sizing down due to heavy rains that started two months ago," said a trader with foreign brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.
The benchmark February 2011 crude palm oil contract was up 2.5 percent at 3,722 ringgit ($1,187.999) per tonne, after touching a high of 3,736 ringgit - a level unseen since June 2008. Overall traded volume more than doubled to 26,915 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 10,000 lots.
"Today's strength is a continuation from last Friday after Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed lower opening stocks in December, and investors worried opening stocks would be low in January as well," said another trader. Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, reported November palm oil stocks fell 8.7 percent to their lowest in four months as resilient export demand chased weaker production.
A Reuters technical analysis showed Malaysian palm oil may rise further to 3,700 ringgit per tonne as its uptrend continues to develop and an anticipated correction did not occur. China's most active September 2011 soyaoil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange jumped 2 percent to a one-month high and lifted Malaysian palm oil prices in Asian trade hours.
Chinese inflation soared past forecasts to a 28-month high in November and showed signs of spreading beyond food prices, putting pressure on the government to ratchet up its monetary tightening. "Investors had factored in the possibility of higher CPI earlier, but gains of soyaoil were capped by the Chinese government's monetary policies to tame price hike," said a Shanghai-based oil analyst with a local brokerage.
On Friday, China's central bank raised lenders' reserve requirements for the third time in a month to mop up some of the excess cash in the economy that is driving prices higher. US soyaoil for December delivery rose 1.1 percent in Asian trade.