Although the National Assembly session on Monday was brief, it was truly revealing, for the first time, that opposition inclusive of MQM and JUI (F), if want, could force the government even on taking corrective economic measures. Neither coalition partners nor the opposition members were ready to hear any justification for raising the prices of petroleum products and troubled ministers took a sigh of relief when Awami National Party Chief Asfandyar Wali came to their rescue.
Chief of ANP suggested the postponement of the matter till Prime Minister Gilani, who is trying to borrow some support from Sharifs or Chaudhary's to save his government, return to the town today (Tuesday) and Pakistan Muslim League (N) agreed to the proposal then the session was adjourned even before formal start.
The only Minister who attempted to sail through the noisy wall erected by the opposition was Petroleum Minister Syed Naveed Qamar but he was barely audible amid the slogans "na manzoor, na manzoor, explanation na manzoor" (not acceptable any explanation) withdraw the increase in price of petrol. One could disagree with opposition leader Chaudhary Nisar Ali on many counts but no one would disagree what he stated after taking floor on a point of order even before the question hour.
Nisar apologised for interrupting the question hour session and said for the first time in his political life an urgent issue had forced him on doing so. And he immediately started reminding the treasury that how his earnest advises have fallen on deaf ears of the high ups of the government during the last three year. I have been asking you to mend ways before it is too late, but alas! You did not care until it started wobbling, he bemoaned.
He was right that in-competency, alleged corruption and inefficiency have stranded the government in a situation between devil and the dead sea-economic situation on one side and mounting political pressure on the other. Withdrawal of increase in petroleum price would increase the fiscal deficit because the government would resort to borrowing from the central bank to meet the deficit caused by the difference in petroleum price. Another demand of the opposition with respect to reviewing taxes on petroleum prices and even removal of petroleum levy would ultimately result in revenue shortfall and increase fiscal deficit.
Analysts fears of over one trillion borrowing from the central bank and this means alarmingly high inflation that would throw more people below the poverty line. Now if the government decides not to withdraw recent increase in petroleum prices, the input cost of doing business would go up and so does inflation and the poverty. So either decision would result in inflation and push more people below the poverty line.
According to a Ministry of Finance report, the inflation in Pakistan has been worst and that may be the reason that no official survey on poverty, in last many year, was seen. What options government or opposition does have? Very simple, the opposition needs to be as vocal and forceful about bad governance, corruption and economic policies, as was on the issue of petroleum prices, to salvage the country from economic morass.
Nisar was right that government performance was very dismal on economic front during the last three years. The policy of ad hocism on economic front has created enormous problems that no one may like to come into power. The large budget deficit, rising debt and debt services, low investment and economic growth and high unemployment and inflation are some of the immediate problems one has to address after coming into power. That is why may be no one is pressing hard for the change of the government and this was evident from today's session.
The opposition should force government on a strategy not only about the petroleum prices but also on a broader economic reform agenda. One can hope that treasury and opposition would rise from the occasion for the betterment of the people and not for the politics otherwise things would worsen in days to come and no one would be able to mend the fences.