Power shortage in the country today is in excess of 4770 MW which translates into 10 hours of load shedding per day. The reason: closure of 24 thermal plants and a reduction in hydel generation. This shortfall must not be confused with a shortage of generational capacity - a shortage that many argue may be used to justify the controversial rental power projects (RPPs).
The main reason for the shortage is the burgeoning inter-circular debt in the power sector defined as piling of debt down the entire power chain that has severely compromised the ability of the importer of crude oil/refined oil/furnace oil, major inputs for our power plants, to pay for purchases from the international market. Government detractors allege that a power shortage of such a magnitude third year running may well be the way the incumbent government would convince a skeptical public that the solution lies in the highly controversial RPPs.
Be that as it may, the RPPs are not likely to be an easy sell for the simple reason that charges of blatant manipulation of the public procurement rules in their award coupled with the contention that the energy shortage does not reflect a generational shortfall were premised on an independent third party audit and not voiced by the opposition that could easily be dismissed as opposition for the sake of opposition.
According to officials of Ministry of Water and Power the three thermal plants operating in the country have fuel stocks of less than three days and the largest thermal plant - Kot Addu - has stocks of less than a day. These are worrying statistics and reflective of the fact that the energy shortfall is attributable to the government's failure to eliminate the inter-circular debt, a debt whose negative repercussion on power generation was acknowledged in November of 2008 in the first Letter of Intent submitted by the government to the International Monetary Fund board.
Three years down the line the government remains hostage to this debt, a stance that is inexplicable given that the present government is willing to eliminate subsidy on electricity as well as raise domestic oil prices to the international level, essentially decisions fraught with negative political fallout, yet is unwilling to compel various government departments/organisations to pay their utility bills or face disconnection.
Another reason for the energy shortfall is the gas shortage during winters due to higher domestic demand. Data reveals that 780 MW of generation capacity from several generating units remains unutilised because of non-availability of gas. It is unfortunate that gas pipeline projects that envisage linking Turkmenistan and Iran surplus gas to our national grid have yet to begin implementation decades after they were first proposed.
However the government must be aware of the fact that around the world as well as in Pakistan there are trillions of cubic feet of tight natural gas that could be produced to supplement our supply. However these sources are difficult to produce as they are held in tight reservoirs where the permeability of the reservoir rocks - that is, their capacity for transmitting fluids - is so low that the gas molecules cannot flow into production wells without assistance.
The assistance required to drain a tight gas field is drilling many more wells because each well produces a relatively small amount of gas. In addition, the wells need to connect with as much reservoir as possible, so they often have very complex geometries. They may, for example, be drilled on a deviated path to bypass obstacles; or they can be horizontal; or multilateral, where several horizontal wells are drilled in different directions originating from a single vertical well. This must be further explored.
The government has also not given due attention to ensuring that transmission losses are minimised. Pakistan continues to have one of the highest transmission losses in the region. Thus inefficiencies need to be minimised which would automatically enhance the generational capacity.
To conclude, there are solutions to the energy crisis, short-term which must consist of reducing transmission losses and eliminating the inter-circular debt, as well as long-term, which may include exploring tight gas as well as pipeline projects within the region and developing Thar coal. It is unfortunate that the present government continues to focus on RPPs as the only viable strategy to eliminate the power shortage. And this in spite of the fact that the third party audit noted that the main problem with Pakistan's power sector is not one of inadequate generation but rampant inefficiency.