The way things are being dealt with in any economy this aspect of the economy is not within the control of any government, be it developed or developing, be it the US or be it the small country of Haiti. What then are the considerations that impinge on this sector that it is almost impossible to handle?
The simplistic model of the early 60s is not going to work. It is obsolete. That was the time that Robert McNamara, who had just taken over as World Bank chief, had the courage and the vision to remodel and reshape the economies of the developing world and to seek support from an international donor body to support the human infrastructure that was needed for the development effort and to keep famine away.
That has now become obsolete and it was in some of the meetings that I shared with him that he would have been the first one to accept the new situation. He would almost every time in the meeting say that the organisation that does not understand outdated polices will not be able to survive. The times have to be understood and this should be a regular feature of the organisations and the countries.
John Maynard Keynes was vehement in his ways and I quote 'a country that cannot afford art or agriculture is a country in which one cannot afford to live'. Most of the countries have and most of the industrial countries have shifted from agriculture to industrial agriculture and what has happened? In some ways, the WTO Doha post or pre is outdated already. Why because the view that comparative advantage will allow us to shift materials from the developing to the developed world and that this would continue automatically. That view is false. Trade liberalisation will not operate where the supply side has failed so miserably for many reasons other than the productive capacity of the resource bases of these countries. When there is a general shortage, the earlier concept of a green revolution will not operate and work.
The decade of terrorism self-imposed due to the mean and rapacious policies of the developed world in which human elements were continuously ignored meant that the gap between the rich and the poor and between the developed and developing world was no longer acceptable to the masses. The theories of economics have changed so drastically that these books now talk of intangibles as important for the economies to move forward. The goons recruited to the WB/ADB no longer can tell the world what is short and why? They are not in touch with reality of the grass-roots. The rising food crises of the 2008 have now been exacerbated by the new rise in prices in 2010-11. The old pattern had not been brought back to the earlier level of prices. The pattern of rising prices based on year on year bases is a lament formation in ideas where the acceptance comes after fear is instilled among those economies that are not doing so well.
What were the reasons for this kind of production debacle? Was it rising fuel prices, was it declining harvests, was it urbanisation, was it land used for producing bio-fuels, was it climate change? Lament rather than positive action was taken. The developed countries were still well placed and continued to state that their agriculture is meaningless and they can access food from any part of the world to meet their food shortages.
The developing countries were told that if they were to survive, then the option is to earn foreign exchange and start selling to the developed world at ever reducing prices. Economics can be turned on its head to enable the developed world to dictate.
Policies articulated by the WB/ADB are not as innocent as they are made out to be. These are loaded in favour of the developed economies. Innocent they may seem but they are not so innocent. They have cheated the developing world by indicating equations that are not for the benefit of the Third World. From their point of view, why should they help the developing world and all kinds of rationalisations are given. After all this while I have been advocating a simple strategy of self-improvement. They keep on reinforcing just two factors about us, first that we are inefficient and second that we are corrupt.
Their yardstick is based on hearsay. All our limited people that fall into their hands are forced to see the worst side of us. The places that have done well are forgotten. The economic policies that have been followed by five countries indicate that there is nothing sacrosanct about the Western economic systems.
After having taught transition economies at the Fatima Jinnah Women's University, I came to the conclusion that the Central Asian Republics will have a tough time at the hands of the Western donor agencies and my consultancies in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan confirm this. The five countries just mentioned are China, Vietnam, Syria, Iran after the Shah, and even Myanmar (Burma) despite all the hype and the way they have tried to destroy the country by its propaganda war. Why did the US Secretary of State go to China with a begging bowl for the human rights of the country are very poor? Why did they ask for the financial resources to get out of the recession? Beijing published proceedings of the day's meeting for all to read.
Capitalism was supposed to have been so good that it destroyed the communist system and yet China, our everlasting friend that came to the rescue of the most powerful of the capitalist system. I am a great admirer of the capitalist system provided the abuse of the system is removed. Greedy people in our society and, in fact, in every walk of life have perverted the capitalist system. Personal gains and a hefty desire to amass wealth through fair or foul means have led to this catastrophe in the capitalist system.
So where do we stand vis-a-vis any system? Why do we not take a cue from the all-time friends, the Chinese? They have been singularly involved in everything. They were and are quite capable of taking action and making it work. Wherewithal is provided and the time sequence for the event to take place is also indicated. In that period of time, the work has to be done. No holds are barred and they do not have the type of idiots we have developed who regress the very system that serves them and provides them with a way to live. How unfortunate? There seems to be a manufacturing fault in us Pakistanis for we are excellent at abusing ourselves. The tyrannical period aside, the happenings of the political system leave much to be desired and had it not been for the sagacity of the PM and the President, this system would have collapsed.
So food inflation is a function of how well the country is managed and how well its leaders force the general public to behave. The meetings that I have attended at the highest level have made me respect some of the top political individuals and, at the same time, it has placed the others in a very terrible light. Can the system provide equity in things? Can the system work on a merit base? Can the system make honest mistakes? Are honest mistakes correctible? The answer is yes. What about dishonest mistakes and how are they correctible? They are not and we keep on making mistakes after mistakes, lies after lies.
Can agriculture be turned on its head? Yes. But not the way our great bureaucrats are doing. In fact they are not even aware of the many variables that go towards higher productivity. All land in Pakistan can be cultivated provided people understand that all urban water can be reused. That has been proved. But the personal prejudice of some people will not allow it to go further.
But then that is life in a country where lies abound and petty benefits rule the day. Was this ordained? No, certainly not ordained. The problem is man made and dependent on the nation and its culture? The requirement for meeting deadline will come ever closer. So the worry should be that the most valuable resource is time-not money. Leadership is distributed and we will talk some on that but at a later date. As of now look out for the extra patriot who thinks that he is the only one who is not corrupt? What have you to say on mental corruption? If the choice is between exterminating monetary corruption and mental corruption, which would the ordinary Pakistani determine and how would he go about removing what he has opted for? Take care, perhaps, the choice is not a fair one. But then we live in an unfair world?