Electricity theft, at the least, makes up a hefty 25% of the total line losses of 22% or so being presently sustained by the PSCEs (NTDC and the Discos). At today's rates, this translates into a staggering Rs 50 - 75 billion this being so, because PEPCO's projected revenue for 2010-11 has been calculated to be Rs 767.5 billion and that normally high tariff units are stolen, while the life line tariff usage gets billed.
Unfortunately, the trend to steal is increasing day by day and is now affecting the very sustainability of the power sector. Experts are of the view that stemming this loss can result in the reduction of the requirement to enhance electricity rates by at least 10-15%. Moreover, why should some be allowed to steal electricity when most pay for what they use.
That another 0.7 million customers have since been detected during the five months viz between July to November 2010 in addition to the 1.50 million found indulging in this malfeasance during 2009-10, does not reduce the requirement to put in even greater efforts. While appreciating the effort of the power sector as a whole and the current awareness campaigns by Pepco and the KESC, it is imperative that full blown action be taken up to stop theft and stealing of electricity in the country.
How do we do it? A ten-point agenda is suggested to be put in place. The first of the steps is to divide and map the Discos (and, of course, the KESC) into fully compliant , the semi-compliant and the non-compliant zones through a colour coding system viz green for the first category, orange for the second and red for the renegades. This step is extremely important to dispel the generally held belief that theft and stealing of energy (illegal abstraction in the legal lingo of the Electricity Act of 1910) in rampart and across the board.
According to experts, the situation is not so even in Fata and the abutting areas of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The second of the steps would be to quantify the exact areas where theft goes on un-checked - in other words, actual detailed mapping would take place on the Disco and its subordinate offices level viz. at the circle, the division and the sub-division.
This step is bound to narrow down the non-compliant areas to specific pockets, which can then be dealt with appropriately. The mapping would see a vast green with orange and red islands here and there - giving us the needed areas to focus. The maps would, off course, be separately drawn for all levels reaching up to the Disco level.
The third of the steps is for the CEO in case of the Disco, the superintending engineer at the circle level, the executive engineer for the division and the sub-divisional officers at the sub-divisional level to focus personally on the non-compliant red areas on the maps.
The focus would comprise many facets viz. to understand the reasons for the theft in the area, as to how it could be minimised, the tools needed to do so, the implementation strategy, the tactics to be employed, the help required from within and from without the organisation, whether just watch and ward would do the job or whether more than that would be needed, where exactly would be the main area of non-compliance, whether taking out this problem would make the rest of the edifice of non-compliance collapse or that the problem was across the board etc and lastly if the people of the area could be made partners in eradication of the menace.
Incidentally, the focus would be area specific because a generic plan cannot succeed. This is also why mapping is suggested to be taken up at all levels. And the input of field officers would be crucial as against that given by arm-chair experts. In other words, the fourth of the steps would be the preparation of a complete all encompassing plan based on the information's gleaned out of the ten different facets of the third step.
The fifth of the steps would be exactly opposite that of the ink spot strategy, which is in great demand in fighting insurgencies. It is being employed by the US forces in Afghanistan. The strategy looks forward to start small with a particular town, secure it and build it up as a safe haven for the part of the population that supports you.
Then like an ink spot spreading out on a blotting paper, you reach out to secure the countryside around that city. Eventual repetition of this would allow you to control the whole area. In the instant case, the Disco, the circle, the division or the sub-division of any Disco would take up a strategy based on a scenario where the ink spot or the non-compliant red area would slowly contract/reduce in size moving towards the centre and where eventually it would disappear merging into the green compliant areas. It would be akin to the re-winding of the film of a blotter with a big fully spread ink spot that disappears on reaching the first frame.
I will dwell on the ink spot re-winding process in a while, and now state the sixth of the steps. This would entail the measurement of energy being supplied to the customers at all levels. As Pepco has already very successfully provided for metering at the 500/200/132/11 KV levels and which would further enhance after its secured metering project gets implemented, the main problem lies at the presently un-metered LT. sub-stations.
In fact, the KESC has worked on this level too and then seem to be in the process of curbing theft some what. The provision of metering at the LT Sub-stations, that is, just before the customer mains would allow the utility managers to calculate the exact number of electricity units that are not being billed and thus would be able to also pinpoint the areas of theft and the exact quantum in unit terms. This information would help the utilities in prioritising their action. Thus the focus can be on hi-unit loss areas and not where just the percentage loss is high.
The seventh of the steps would be the actual field operation in shape of the combing exercise. This would be akin to a de-licing operation. As the plan formulated on the basis of the fourth step would provide the field combing team with necessary data, the actual combing would be comparatively easy thus reaping quick and rich dividends.
The combing would take on the easy targets in the first go, ie the customers who have either bypassed the energy meters or have injured the equipment. The second combing activity would be deeper and sure to unearth consumers, who adopt other measures to abstract energy. This could be reversing of meter registers, stopping the meters to register energy for various periods of times, illegal hooking of electricity lines and so on. Thus the non-compliant or the spotted areas would turn into compliant ones where customers would pay for what they use.
The eighth of the steps would be securing of the metering equipment and introduction of new technologies leading even to the smart grids in the long run. This step would be taken up concurrently with the earlier seven of the steps.
Consequently, along with the reversal of the spread ink spot from the blotting paper back to the original speck and then the final lifting-up of the speck too, would be the secured system - incapable of being breached by the deviants/those indulging in theft and stealing of electricity in future too.
The ninth of the steps would be the replication of the reverse ink spot strategy in the whole of the country and that on the basis of the plan conjured earlier on. In other words, as against the ink spot strategy being suggested for slowly spreading governmental control in insurgency infested countries, in the instant case, the areas held by the non-compliant consumers would be re-claimed. Eventually, the whole canvas would become compliant and which should be the goal.
Understanding the present socio-cultural position in the country and that theft of electricity has permeated deep into our psyche, the tenth and final step would be the change in legislation in support of utility operations through redrafting of the Electricity Act of 1910, the Electricity Rules of 1937, the Nepra Act of 1996 and even the Telegraph Act of 1885.
This would be taken up concurrently along with the earlier nine steps. Actually, no law is of any value if it does not possess the required teeth. Apt example of it would be Pepco's present anti-theft effort, when about 15,000 FIRs have been lodged against the delinquents during this financial year, whereas only five such persons have been indicted as yet. More so, in the present context where electricity worth Rs 50-70 billion is being abstracted each year and when the pressure to increase tariffs in surmounting each moment.
Implementation of all the above ten steps and the reverse ink spot strategy will curb theft and stealing of electricity and ensure due revenue for the utilities. In case, Pepco and the KESC do not place the needed emphasis on curbing theft, the viability of the power sector cannot be assured.
The GoP and the provincial governments, on the other hand, will have to pitch in with their support and at the same time, assure that there is no outside intervention in the theft control activities. Additionally, the theft has to be stopped in a maximum of 18 months, ie by June, 2012 or the power sector would simply collapse.
(The writer is President (Elect) Institution of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Pakistan)