Pakistan is facing a very serious energy crisis. So much so that it may even drown us. Luckily, everybody understands the gravity of the situation and is taking up actions, which are programmed to help the country to overcome the crisis.
Additionally, various multilateral developmental agencies like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and others in addition to the USAID, JICA, AFD (French Development Agency), Kuwait Fund, Islamic Development Bank and such like institutions are in the fray to help us.
The FoDP, a great conglomeration and comprising all of our friends, has conjured an all encompassing report through the energy sector task force (ESTF) - the writer was also a member of the steering committee. This report, while baring the various constrictions and issues that beset us, has provided a short term, medium term and long term plan for the country to adopt. Unfortunately, the last meeting of the FoDP at Brussels could not achieve the desired result.
On the other hand, we see that the country's oil import bill has hit the ceiling and probably will not be sustainable any further. Similarly, the Nation cannot wait for alternate energy sources and hydro-generation to come to the help because of the long gestation period of such projects.
Additionally, there is a shortage of 568-917 mmcfd of gas in the country and the resource may not be able to be diverted to the power sector to lower the cost of generation, which, in turn, can possibly reduce the cost of service that could somewhat ameliorate the fastly increasing power tariffs.
It is in this context that experts talk of the need to shift the energy mix in Pakistan from imported oil and fastly dwindling gas reserves of the country to coal - both imported and indigenous. But then, why should we ever think of coal imports, when Pakistan sits atop the biggest of coal reserves in the world. Pakistani coal reserves are quantified at a colossal 184 billion tons and which are estimated to last hundreds of years; again for producing thousands of mega-watts. Comparing the coal reserves with others, we see that these, according to some estimates, are equal to the oil reserves of both Saudi Arabia and Iran.
From the above, it is concluded that especially Thar coal needs to be prospected on a very fast track. However, there is a requirement to look into the reason as to why Thar coal could not be developed, although it was first known to be available as far back as in 1993 in such great quantities as equaling 175 billion tons - a tremendous resource for a country like Pakistan. A little insight leads us to the conclusion that not much in Pakistan can succeed in case due emphasis is not placed on that particular subject and that too by the offices that matter and probably exactly the opposite happened in the case of Thar coal.
Dilating on the this aspect, we see that two specific national issues were able to be resolved because these became a part of the public policy in the start and thereafter converted into national policy, which then luckily got due follow-up by successive governments. These two were the national resolve to assure an impregnable defence for the country and the second to achieve nuclear deterrence. Because of conversion of the public policy of a particular era into the national policy, Pakistan now possesses the envisaged impregnable defence and has also attained an enviable nuclear deterrence.
As the energy crisis also equals these two issues and the sovereignty of the state depends on achieving autarky in energy, hence there is a need to draft a national policy for use of Thar coal as the mainstay of energy resource for the country. Consequently, all possible will have to be done to assure that the Thar coal gets developed and that it thereafter takes care of our needs to fire the generators to meet the demands of the country for the many coming decades.
However, if we look into the history, we see that efforts to develop Thar coal have been in an 'on and off' position many times and that more than one organisation was required and even set up or tasked for it. These have been the PMDC, WAPDA, Sindh Mines and Minerals Department, the Sindh Coal Authority, the Thar Coal Mining Development Company and lastly the presently dynamic of all, the Thar Coal Energy Development Board.
Unfortunately, the last of the organisations, having all the possible will, but not much wherewithal, still faces insurmountable obstacles. The lone ranger Engro Corporation seems to be very serious, but its sincerity, focus and prowess would need to be supported by concrete efforts on the national level. More so, when we see that the basic infrastructure needed to develop the Thar coal into something exploitable is simply not there as yet.
If the Thar coal were to be meaningfully utilised, first of all the national budget will have to make way for substantial outlays for many years to come to set up the infrastructure needed to further develop Thar coal and also for equity payments by the public sector for arranging conversion of the existing power plants and industries, putting up new power plants, coal to gas plants, coal to petroleum products and so on.
Secondly, various governmental departments will have to be commissioned to attract clean coal technologies. These would include the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and Industries, the Ministry of Water and Power and the various departments like Enercon, AEDB, NPO, Heavy Industries, Wapda, PSCEs - especially the Gencos, PIDC, PMDC, Provincial Mineral Departments, Provincial Industrial Departments etc.
PPIB would be specially required to attract investments in coal fired power generation as against the present emphasis on RFO. As multiple tasking is envisaged and because a great number of ministries and departments/organisations will be involved, a focal co-ordinating organisation in the country will be needed.
In the instant case, where development and use of Thar coal will be taken up as a national policy, the focal organisation which readily comes to mind would be the Planning Commission. More so, when it has since broken the earlier shackles and is in a position to tackle the issue. Of course, the Planning Commission would have to attract professionals of the highest order as the existing resources may not be able to achieve the necessary co-ordination.
Moreover, the federal and the provincial governments, with all their resources, have to be fully involved in achieving the laid down goals. As such, the government will independently and also in close Cupertino request the Pakistani diaspora - especially in the developing countries and those who are relevant to be national policy, to come back to Pakistan, at least till the goals are achieved. Actually, the needed resource will only be available if both the local/indigenously trained and the foreign-trained professionals are put together. More so, when environmental issues would now be taking precedence over everything else.
As use of coal is surely cumbersome in comparison to the use of gas and the RFO, the media will be called upon to educate everybody about the change. Additionally, under a pre-determined plan, large number of professionals will be sent abroad for visiting coal-fired complexes, for getting hands-down experience in the changeover from oil/gas to coal and the actual operation of some of these, for getting access to cutting edge clean coal technologies, for being educated in the relevant sciences of geography, geology, mining, petroleum and related sciences, environmental sciences (including technologies needed to clean up trouble spots), various other earth sciences and engineering disciplines relevant to the infrastructure and production facilities for the various energy products. Additionally, the UETs in the country and other technology centres would need to change their syllabi and curriculum to bring the same in line with the requirements of the national policy.
Another very important facet, which normally does not feature much in national programmes is the art of putting up new settlements, taking up resettlements, calculating and paying royalties to the concerned through necessary legislations and that too after due public debate, assurances to the effect that the areas providing succour to the nation would be the first of the beneficiaries instead of being forgotten and lastly that the national policy would be there for the long haul. All these areas of concern will have to be kept in mind in case the Thar coal National Policy has to succeed.
(The writer is President (Elect) of Institution of Electrical & Electronics Engineers Pakistan)