In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Barack Obama sought to reassure his countrymen about the so-called war on terror. Al Qaeda's leadership, he averred, is under more pressure in Pakistan now than at any time since the 9/11 attacks, and that the US-led war in neighbouring Afghanistan would deny al Qaeda sanctuary there.
Said he, "their leaders and operatives are being removed from the battlefield. Their safe havens are shrinking." From the Pakistani perspective, this is not a particularly reassuring picture. When he says that the al Qaeda leaders are under pressure in Pakistan, Obama obviously is talking of the drone strikes, which have increased dramatically during recent months, causing huge 'collateral damage'.
His assertion that the US-led war in Afghanistan would deny al Qaeda sanctuary there, aims to show that the enemy is across the border in Pakistan. In short, he has tried to tell his people that the main theatre of war has shifted from Afghanistan to Pakistan. This helps the US in more ways than one. It can declare success in its mission to oust al Qaeda from Afghanistan, where it planned the 9/11 atrocity.
That is necessary to find a face-saving exit from Afghanistan. Besides, various opinion surveys show that the American people are tired of the war, and want the boys to come home. The campaign for the next presidential election will start in about a year's time. Obama has to wrap up his country's Afghan campaign in time for the next election.
Saying that al Qaeda is in Pakistan helps put pressure on Islamabad to fight for the achievement of the results that Washington needs. More to the point, Pakistan is being pushed to launch a military operation in North Waziristan, where some hard-line Afghan Taliban groups, such as the Haqqani network, are believed to have taken refuge. So far, the powers-that-be have resisted going into North Waziristan, citing engagements in other troubled areas that have stretched the Army too thin and hence not in a position to start action in a new area.
Those familiar with the situation inside North Waziristan liken it to a hornet's nest, where all manner of local and Afghan extremists are hiding. Touching it, they point out, could result in unforeseen and uncontrollable consequences. Yet another reason for the hesitancy is ascribed to old links between some groups of the Afghan Taliban and Pakistani agencies, which the latter may not want to damage due to considerations of long-term utility.
Whatever the real reason, the fact of the matter is that Pakistan has suffered too much on account of this war. An estimated 32,000 Pakistanis have fallen victim to it. The economy is in dire straits. If it is to remain the main battlefield, as Obama, implied, this country will sink deeper into trouble.
Islamabad, therefore, has a great responsibility to act with extreme caution, and do only what is necessary to rid this society of the scourge of extremism. Helping resolve Afghanistan, of course, is in Pakistan's interest as well. But counting the cost to Pakistani state and society is important.