The uprising in Egypt has punctured a huge hole in America's pro-democracy pretence. In his famous speech to the Muslim world that he delivered in Cairo, President Barrack Obama had spent considerable time extolling the virtues of democracy and its relevance to all peoples.
Said he, "those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere", adding "no matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who hold power." Standing in Cairo, the most populous and influential country in the Arab world, in June 2009, Obama had least expected that only 19 months later the Egyptian people would be testing his stated commitment to democracy.
When unprecedented mass protests erupted all over Egypt a week ago against Hosni Mubarak's 30-year-old dictatorship, Washington was taken by complete surprise. It struggled to keep up with the fast-moving events. Of course, it did not want to pull the rug from under the dictator's feet, which it has been paying $1.3 billion annually for long to protect and promote its interests in the region. Doing so would also send a wrong signal to the region's other authoritarian regimes, which are shaking with fear of what might happen to them if the Egyptians succeed in toppling their dictator. The Tunisian revolt has inspired not only the Egyptians but also the Yemenis and Jordanians to take to the streets to protest against corruption, rising food prices, and lack of democratic freedoms. In an attempt to appease the people, Jordan's King Abdullah has dismissed his prime minister and the cabinet. Such empty gestures will not do. In fact, a major public demand is about restricting the king's power to appoint and dismiss governments. The people want to have the right to choose or remove their leaders.
Democracy is good for rhetorical purposes, but unwelcome for certain parts of the world, especially the Middle East. Egypt is too important for American interests in the region to let go easily. A nervous Washington has been trying every trick to deny the Egyptians the right to decide who should lead them while paying lip-service to the "legitimate grievances" of the people. There is no condemnation of the killing at the hands of Mubarak's brutal police force of nearly 300 peaceful protesters and injuring of another 3000. The police, however, have now been replaced by the Army which says it won't open fire on the agitators.
The buzzword is "orderly transition". The strategy is two-pronged, one aims at letting the people vent their rage unhindered and to wear them down; and the other is to buy time to engineer a construct that puts new puppets in place. A special US envoy, Frank Wisner, has been in Cairo to prepare for an 'orderly transition'. The first step was for Mubarak to announce - according to Wisner, at Obama's urging - that he won't seek a sixth term in office. But he is to remain in office until the next election in September. The hope is that, by then, the public's interest and energy will fizzle out.
Meanwhile, the newly appointed vice president, Umar Suleiman, well-known for his connections both with Washington and Tel Aviv, is to hold a 'dialogue' with the opposition. Who in the opposition? So far Washington has been reluctant to trust even Mohamed ElBaradei who, one would think, should be readily acceptable considering that the West has rewarded him with a Nobel Prize for his work as the head of the nuclear watchdog, IAEA. But he insists that Mubarak must leave before talks can begin with the government about a transition plan. More important, he does not have a constituency of his own to make independent decisions. The people around him want a broad-based "board of trustees" to draft constitutional reforms as well as to oversee free elections. That leaves little room for the US-led, anti-people forces to manoeuvre for the achievement of their objectives.
Interestingly, although the US and Israel make much of the possibility of the radical Islamist party, the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwanul Muslimeen), taking over power, the Brotherhood is hardly visible in the demonstrations that include all kinds of Egyptians-secular and religious, Muslim and Christian, young and old, rich and poor. They are tired of the thirty long years of corruption, oppression and collusion with Israel. The Brotherhood leadership is supporting a secularist ElBraradei to form a new government of national unity and hold elections. But a truly representative government does not suit the US and its protégé, Israel.
Israel is extremely upset. Its far right Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been saying his government is "anxiously monitoring" and following with "vigilance and worry", what is happening in Egypt. Reports say Israel is telling the US and its European backers to curb their criticism of Mubarak and to "preserve stability in Egypt." Netanyahu's worry and anxiety is understandable. Egypt, which boasts the most powerful Arab army, not only made a separate peace deal, ignoring other Arab states' desire for a compressive peace, with Israel, it has been playing a significant role in pushing the Palestinians towards a worthless peace process. Mubarak has also enforced an effective blockade of Gaza. Little wonder that some protesters carry pictures of him with the Star of David superimposed on his face.
A democratically elected government can ill-afford to maintain this kind of 'stability' for the US and Israel. It may not resume hostilities with Israel immediately, but there will be no support to the Zionist state's relentless oppression in the occupied territories. As some Israeli commentators point out, it will also necessitate a substantial increase in Israel's military expenditure, which has come down from 23 percent of the GDP in the 1970s pre-peace deal period to 9 percent at present. And, without a doubt, Tel Aviv will have to worry about the goings on at the Rafah border crossing, which links the besieged Gaza with Egypt.
The US' stakes in Egypt are too high. Aside from protecting Israel's policy of oppression and expansion in the Occupied Territories, it needs to keep the Suez Canal, a vital route for trade and energy supplies, free from any possible hindrance. A democratic Egypt may want to use its own mind to decide how to deal with Israel or to use its resources in the event of trouble. And, of course, a democratic Egypt is also a nightmare for the US' other allies in the region.
Hence, Washington is trying hard to block the people's march towards democracy. That surely would be obvious to the protest leaders. They will have to come up with a new strategy to counter its tactics of delay and deceit. The next few days will show which way things are going to go. One thing though is clear: the US, its protégé and lackeys are on the wrong side of history.
saida_fazal@yahoo.com