Seen by many as a marriage of convenience, Pak-US relations are once again facing challenging times with a widening trust deficit; yet the allies in the war on terror have no other option but to support each other to ensure stability in Afghanistan and the region.
Right now both countries need each other to deal with war in Afghanistan and "we cannot afford a divorce" at this juncture, said Dr Marvin G Weinbaum, scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute, Washington DC. He was addressing a public talk on "Challenges in US-Pakistan Relations," organised by Institute of Strategic Studies (ISS), here on Wednesday.
"Pakistan has no alternative to the US," Dr Marvin said and added that "China cannot be a replacement to the US and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Pakistan because of China's own global ambitions." Middle East and Saudi Arabia, he maintained, were not interested thus Pakistan had no other option. Dr Weinbaum gave a comprehensive overview of Pak-US relationship. Among others, India had been a factor in shaping Pakistan's relationship with the US. Most of the times relations between the US and Pakistan had been military centric, he noted.
Prescribing people to people contact as a remedy for building trust and long-lasting relationship, Dr Weinbaum termed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement wherein she hinted at retaliation against Pakistan in the backdrop of 9/11 incident, as "worrisome".
He said that the United States has always supported democratic governments in Pakistan, but the circumstances have compelled it to support dictatorships, like when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, which left the US with no choice but to support General Zia. It was a similar case when the 9/11 attacks happened, which forced the US to support a military regime in Pakistan.
Identifying stability in Afghanistan as a common interest, he said we (both sides) had not handled our relations very well and made mistakes in the past. Dr Weinbaum warned that the success of Taliban will lead to civil war in Afghanistan which, he said, would be a nightmare for Pakistan since Afghan Taliban can not be controlled.
It will create a humanitarian issue and millions of refugees would simply march towards Pakistan. In addition, sooner or later other countries - Iran, China, India and Russia - will get in the way making Afghanistan a proxy ground for wars in future, he added. He also rejected the idea that Quetta Shura or Haqqani network can really deliver tangible results.
Referring to Pakistan's concern about Indian role in Afghanistan, he rejected existence of 15 Indian consulates in Afghanistan being reported by Islamabad saying there were only four. When asked whether the US relations with India could impact on Pakistan, he said since both Pakistan and India perform different roles and have different requirements, therefore, the policy for both is different but "that does not diminish the importance of Pakistan."
The success of the US and coalition forces in Afghanistan is success of Pakistan as well but it is not regarded as such in this country. Afghanistan will not be a strategic asset to any of the 47 countries (coalition forces) in the future, he added. He voiced concern over Pakistan's policy of pursuing peace in Afghanistan and providing a high degree of immunity to some Pushtoon Talibans and termed it contradictory. Dr Weinbaum acknowledged Pakistan's fears as legitimate that once US interest in the region and in Afghanistan are addressed both the US and its coalition of international forces will abandon the region as they did after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces. He also admitted that coming to dangerous zone of Afghanistan after al Qaeda was a mistake.