Late rain is likely to cut Brazil's 2011 soyabean harvest to between 70-71 million tonnes from forecasts of 71-72 million tonnes, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. This would still be up on the 68.6 million tonnes of soyabeans harvested by Brazil in 2010.
Heavy rain in much of Brazil in early March hit soyabeans at an immensely vulnerable time in several regions as harvesting was underway. Farmers in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul alone estimate that 1.5 million tonnes of this year's soyabean crop has been lost. Weather in coming days would be critical to the harvest outcome, Oil World said.
"The Brazilian soyabean crop is unlikely to reach earlier optimistic forecasts of 71-72 million tonnes," Oil World said. "However, it is still considered possible that production will turn out between 70-71 million tonnes if weather improves soon and harvesting catches up." Oil World had on Mar. 1 estimated the crop at 71.5 million tonnes. Brazilian government agency Conab actually raised its forecast to 70.3 million tonnes on Mar. 10 although observers stressed the estimate did not reflect the recent rain and would probably be revised down later.