Early this week as the Saudi military troops crossed the causeway and entered Bahrain, the troops flashed signs of victory and the demonstrators responded with boos and hoots, shouting "you are invaders." The Saudi troops and UAE policemen have reached Manama to secure the royal family under the request by the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) of which the former is also a member.
Unlike Egypt and Tunis where dictatorial regimes fell to largely peaceful protests in full view of international community - though some of the powers saw the developments as clashing with their regional interests - and accepted the logic of the protestors. So in the end the decades-old deeply entrenched stalwarts fell like nine pins. There was no noticeable negative fallout of the change in Egypt and Tunis.
But Bahrain is a different cup of tea; here the stakes are hiigh with strategic dimensions The fall of Bahraini royalty will put at grave risk the future, and fate, of all Gulf monarchies. And also threaten the assured supply of oil to most of the European countries and above all the United States.
The United States is especially concerned about the hold of the royal family as its Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain - though Washington's public posturing on this crisis is at variance with its behind-the-scene manoeuvrings to protect the ever-loyal royalty. Its principal strategic interest is in the stability of the status quo in the Gulf region, which has acquired greater urgency in the light of the fact that Saudi oil supply has been significantly augmented after Libyan oil became unavailable.
But there is a thorn in the American side, and that is Iran's increased interest reflected sharply in its opposition to "foreign intervention" in Bahrain's internal affairs. Of course, Iran showed interest in regime changes in Egypt and Tunis but it was limited by the political and public support as both the countries have overwhelming large Sunni populations. The case of Bahrain is different in that Shias outnumber Sunnis the base of the Sunni ruling royalty.
The issue becomes all the more critical now that the kind of martial law in the county had to be enforced by the Bahraini security force which is largely Shia. Then the sheikhdom has a history of experiencing periodic spells of the Shia anger. If this mini country falls to the protesters in the Pearly Squire the entire Saudi oil-rich eastern region where Shias have significant presence will automatically become hotbed of intrigues opening the floodgates of instability. Some ramblings of dissent in the Saudi Kingdom are being heard and in neighbouring Sultanate of Oman.
That's where the United States' strategic interests come into play. And for the rest of the world, assured stability of the region for their economic interests is not less crucial. Once instability grips this region, to bring back normality is a long haul proposition.
The emerging Gulf scenario is also a matter of concern for the countries of South Asia and Far East. Not only is its oil critical to their economies it is also the place which significantly contributes to their foreign exchange earnings in the shape of remittances. For Pakistan the foretaste of the developments had come when five, one confirmed and four were reportedly beaten to death by street goons.
Obviously our reaction to the evolving situation in the Gulf needs to be analysed realistically keeping our national interest in mind. An emotional approach will prove to be counterproductive. After all we cannot afford to lose the principal source of employment of our expatriates and foreign exchange through their remittances.