Sterling will probably waver near current levels for the next few months before diverging interest rate policies around the world help push it higher against the dollar, a Reuters poll found. The survey of over 60 foreign exchange analysts this week showed the pound trading near $1.61 over the next three months, before appreciating to $1.64 in a year's time - slightly stronger than the $1.62 seen in last month's poll.
Sterling came within sight of a 14-month high on Wednesday, hovering near a two-week peak of $1.6354, although it later fell half a cent after data showed British industrial output suffered a shock fall in February.
With British economic data still looking temperamental, analysts looked to the country's expected interest rate profile as a firmer starting point for sterling forecasts.
The Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates at a record low 0.5 percent on Thursday, although several analysts expect it to hike rates in May, with the consensus pointing to a third quarter hike.
That would in any case put the BoE several months ahead of the US Federal Reserve in starting a cycle of policy tightening, since most leading economists say the Fed will hold rates near zero throughout 2011.
At 4.4 percent in February, UK consumer price inflation was running more than double the BoE's target of 2 percent and it is unlikely to ease much over the course of this year. Economic growth is expected to remain weak. Forecasts for the 12-month timeframe ranged from $1.41 to $1.82.
Analysts retained forecasts for a gradual appreciation of sterling against the euro.
While the European Central Bank looks almost certain to pip the BoE to a first interest rate hike since the recession, the ongoing fiscal crisis afflicting the eurozone's periphery will depress sentiment for the common European currency.
The poll showed the euro staying at current levels near 87.7 pence in a month's time, before a slow depreciation to 87 pence in three months, 85.5 in six, and 84.1 pence in a year.