Pakistan has missed even the revised growth target of 2.8 percent as provisional figures suggest it would be 2.4 percent for the current fiscal year largely on the back of slightly better performance by the services sector on account of 50 percent increase in salaries and defence expenditure.
A statement issued after the meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) presided over by Secretary Statistics Division Asif Bajwa attributed the decline to floods, load shedding and other factors for overall 2.4 percent growth for the current fiscal year against original target of 4.5 percent, revised following the floods to 2.8 per cent based on figures of July-February 2010-11.
The GDP growth for previous year was also revised downward to 3.76 percent from 4.1 per cent and 2008-09 was finalised at 1.72 percent, 0.5 per cent up from revised target of 1.2 per cent. The overall agricultural performance during the current year remained 1.2 percent with a positive growth in livestock whereas major agriculture crops showed negative growth due to heavy loses for cotton and rice. However, the minor crops improved provisionally and industry as a whole remained at the same level with fluctuations within the sectors. Services sector settled at 4.1 percent. The major contributors are trade, public administration, defence and private services sector, the statement concluded.
An official said that major support to the dwindling growth was coming from service sector as performance of agriculture and financial sectors was below the estimates. Sources said that financial sector is in negative because of growing non-performing loans and negligible growth in banks deposits. They said growth in wholesale trade was 3.8 primarily because of 15 to 16 per cent import growth. Around 3.7 per cent growth in the livestock despite massive damage by the flood was very encouraging.
The eight months figures showed a negligible growth of 1.2 percent by the agriculture sector with major crops witnessing a negative growth of 4.03 percent in the current fiscal year. However, the first estimate based on the figures reported by the provincial crops units showed wheat production at 24.2 million tons for the current fiscal year, which officials are optimistic would go up, as yields has been much better due to floods and timely rains even the cultivated area was 3 per cent less this year.
The performance of the minor crops was relatively good showing a growth of 4.8 percent in 2010-11 against negative 4.8 percent in 2009-10. The large-scale manufacturing posted a negligible growth of 0.98 percent against projected target of 1.7 per cent for the current fiscal year. The cotton production would be 11.6 million bales for the current fiscal year, an official said these figures are still not final and are likely to be finalised in another round.