"Can he [Bashar al-Asad] survive? Should he survive? Do you [Recep Tayyip Erdogan] tell him it's time to go?" The Turkish prime minister has a measured response to these questions: "It's early to make a decision today because the final decision will be made by the people of Syria, of course. The unity and integrity of Syria should remain. That's how we want to see our neighbour."
Erdogan's approach to Syria unrest looks quite plausible because of a variety of reasons. The Turkish prime minister, who has expressed concerns that Syria might split along sectarian lines, is treading a very cautious path, particularly in the case of his country's southern neighbour. However, he categorically declares before noted American TV anchor Charlie Rose that Turkey does not want to see a "new Hama is happening" in Syria. He also says that Syrian President Bashar is a good friend of his and that during his each visit to Syria he has seen people's love for their leader.
Although, there's hardly any doubt about Ankara's claim that it had begun applying pressure on Damascus for reform even before a wave of uprisings began in the Arab world, its reaction to the events in Syria in particular is causing some Turkey watchers to call its "muted criticism" of violence instigated by the autocratic regimes in the region into question.
"Tell me where Turkey is today?" Charlie Rose asks Henri Barkey of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, one of the guests at his show, a few days later. Henri says that Turkey is now finding that "its expansion is limited by the Arab Spring; by the limitations of the regimes in the Arab world. Turkey is also finding that its zero-problem policy with its neighbours is backfiring because that zero-problem with neighbours is really a zero-problem with the regimes. And the regimes are in great stress, especially Syria, and how Syria evolves and emerges from this crisis will have a major impact on Turkey...."
But economically, according to him, Turkey looks very good at the moment. "It has placed itself in a position where it exports to the rest of Europe, US, etcetera, but also to new markets in Africa and the Middle East. So the trajectory is a positive one. The next question is going to be the elections [scheduled to be held next month] in Turkey and what happens after elections in terms of the Kurdish question. And that is a big problem."
Turkey and the Arab Spring. How do you assess that performance so far? Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations believes "so far Turkey's performance is not very good". According to him, the Arab Spring has presented a whole series of challenges for Turkey and has really shattered the myth of the new Turkish foreign policy. The whole idea behind Foreign Minister Davutoglu's and Prime Minister Erdogan's outreach to the Arab world was that Turks knew the region better than anybody else; they had a better touch, a better feel and a better insight into the region. Therefore, they have been strongly critical of the United States' and others' approach to the region.
"But what we see unfolding in the Middle East, particularly as it pertains to Turkish relations with Libya and Turkish relations with Syria, is that the Turks are as befuddled and confused as many others when they come to the Arab Spring and their vision of themselves as the leader of the region with influence in playing a constructive role has come against their interest and their interest is wrapped up in Moammar Qadhafi's Libya and Asad's Syria," Steven says.
Henri, however, argues that it is not clear whether the US wants Bashar to quit power. According to him, "there is a way in which Turkey and United States actually Erdogan and President Obama are working a little bit in tandem trying to figure out a soft transition in Syria because clearly Syria is different from Egypt and Tunisia, because the potential of a bloodbath is huge and without a visa policy [Syrians and the nationals of a host of other countries are not subject to entry visa requirements] there will be tens of thousands if not more Syrians who will be trying to cross into Turkey. And the Turks are very very worried about that."
(To be continued)