Following the apex court judgments given last Friday, political pundits are pitching Shahbaz vs. Imran as the real competition for the prime minister’s seat post 2018 elections. That should get partisans excited, but beyond that, there’s nothing much to cheer about. The higher judiciary continues to be the arbitrator of the fortunes of elected political leadership. While elected politicians begrudgingly accept such decrees, the unelected, protesting groups – both political and religious – don’t care much about court orders.

Another wave of protests is seemingly in the offing. Political doomsayers would like to have us believe that the “system” is under “unprecedented” threat. The threat is explained as another dharna that might be staged in Islamabad to force an already-meek federal government to call in early general elections, just before the March Senate elections.

Pundits may have a point: political instability – which started the day Panama Papers hit cyberspace – is growing by the day. But the feeble democracy has weathered such instabilities before. The struggling PPP outlasted multiple crises in 2008-13. And now, the PML-N government has almost made its way to the finish line, despite being hit by a number of dharnas and institutional intrigues. But will this time be different?
Pakistan’s history is replete with political instability. When it comes to civilian rule, instability came back to haunt the “system” roughly every couple of years. As for the three khaki rulers, they had a considerably longer shelf life. But roughly a decade later, they also scurried for cover, ceding political space to the same old political parties they had ousted from power.

In short, “system” has undergone a complete reversal roughly every decade in Pakistan. It’s almost as if the reversal is priced into the national psyche. To borrow from Jean-Baptiste Karr, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Unfortunately, it has been like that for Pakistan.

If the system’s reversal is indeed a fact of life in Pakistan, then history may be in for some repeating in 2018 as well. And there could be little standing in its way because those who vote in a government continue to feel no need to challenge those who want to oust an elected government through extra-constitutional means. Part of the problem is flawed politicians; part of that is voters’ disenchantment.

For political phoenixes, it could have been a great run since 2008. They had a shot at ushering in decentralization (achieved some success there), unlocking the economic potential (produced a mixed bag) and creating a tolerant society (leaving it worse, probably). Now, maybe, it’s time for the long-time birds to burn again, so they could hope to rise from the ashes the next time the cycle turns. Meanwhile, political noise will continue to muddy the waters, with little material change in how things work in Pakistan.