Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World on Tuesday cut its forecasts of Argentina's 2011 soyabean crop by 0.3 million tonnes as it said harvest yields were poorer than expected after unfavourable weather. Oil World now forecasts Argentina's 2011 soyabean crop at 49.2 million tonnes, down from 53.9 million tonnes harvested last year.
On May 10, Oil World had forecast the 2011 crop at 49.5 million tonnes. "Some observers argue that the crop could finally turn out at slightly below 49.0 million tonnes," it said.
Argentine soyabeans suffered from dryness in early 2011. Rain in April and May relieved crops but some soyabeans are too badly damaged to be saved, Oil World said. Argentina is the world's No 1 soyameal and soyaoil exporter and the world's third-biggest soyabean producer. The Argentine government is more optimistic and expects a 2011 soyabean harvest of 50.4 million tonnes.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also expects 49.2 million tonnes while the US Department of Agriculture predicts 49.5 million tonnes. "The last 25 percent of this year's (Argentine) soyabean harvesting will not bring the expected results," Oil World said. "Although yields in the northern areas have been very good of late, the poor results in the central regions and the Buenos Aires province cannot be compensated." Argentine farmers are likely to abandon 0.4 million hectares of soyabeans although some Argentine crop watchers expect up to 0.6 million hectares to be abandoned, Oil World said.