Russian wheat exports will only be moderate if the country ends an export ban this summer as it will need much of a large new wheat harvest itself, a leading commodity analyst said during the Reuters Black Sea grain forum. "I do not think Russia will be able to export all that much wheat in the new season as it will need to cover its own domestic demand and rebuild its stocks," said Claus Keller, senior grains analyst at German commodity analyst FO Licht.
Keller estimates Russia will export only 4 to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat in the new 2011/12 season starting this summer. This would be hugely down on the 18.6 million tonnes of wheat exported in 2009/10 before last year's export ban, which came into force in mid-August 2010 and is due to run to the beginning of July this year.
Russia is currently on course for a much better crop than last year and provided there is normal weather up to the harvest the country is likely to end its export ban, he said. Russia stunned importing countries and caused a surge in global grains prices in summer 2010 by banning grain exports after drought cut the country's wheat crop to only 41.5 million tonnes from 61.7 million tonnes in 2009.
"I think that Russia will produce more than last year and our current estimate is for 52 million tonnes," Keller said. "Some time during the new 2011/12 season I would expect limited volumes of Russian wheat to be sold on international markets but I do not expect the high tonnages seen in past years as Russia's domestic demand will be too strong."
Russia is likely to consume about 47 million tonnes of wheat itself in the new season, he forecast. The country will also need to replenish its stocks which were run down after last year's disastrous crop, he said. Russian stocks of all grain types were down a sharp 18.8 percent on the year on May 1, official data showed last week. Keller said it was difficult to predict when the export ban could be lifted. A late decision was possible as Russia is likely to consider factors including inflation and the upcoming Russian parliamentary election in December.