Indonesia sees higher unmilled rice paddy output of 70.6 million tonnes this year, leading to a greater surplus that means there is no need for further imports of the staple in 2011, said an agriculture ministry official. This was up 2.6 percent from the ministry's previous December forecast, and the comments may weigh on regional prices since bumper purchases by the country surprised markets in the first quarter and had led to the possibility of more in 2011.
The ministry's previous forecast was for 68.8 million tonnes, while Indonesia's statistics bureau said in March it expected output up 1.4 percent to 67.31 million tonnes of unmilled grain this year. Udhoro Kasih Anggoro, director of food crops at the ministry, told Reuters that the country's options for boosting supply were improving productivity by using better seeds and better fertilisers, controlling pests and diseases, and minimising post-harvest losses.
"In 2011 we expect to have a rice surplus of 4.793 million tonnes," Anggoro said in an interview. "We have no plan to import rice in 2011 or in coming years and we are not dreaming of importing rice this year." The statistics bureau had in March forecast the surplus at 4.3 million tonnes. Indonesia aims to boost rice production by 5 percent annually, as the country aims to improve food security and dampen food inflation.
Hari Priyono, secretary general at the agriculture ministry, said the government has set a target to reach a 10 million tonne rice surplus by 2014, and is providing 3 trillion rupiah ($350.5 million) to boost productivity. He said it aims to build 100,000 hectares of new paddy fields in 2012. High food prices could still hurt growth in Southeast Asia's top economy and policymakers worry they could cause social unrest too, so improving self-sufficiency has become a top policy priority.
Surging food prices, led by rice and chillies, helped drive January inflation to a 21-month high and led to an investor sell-off in bonds and stocks, but moves to import rice and improve food supply calmed inflation and brought back portfolio investors in recent months. Anggoro estimated the country's rice consumption in 2011 at around 33.3 million tonnes. "Currently we are also implementing a food diversification program with cassava, sweet potato, corn etc, which we expect could suppress our rice consumption per capita by 0.654 percent a year. So, we are very optimistic of reaching the rice surplus," Anggoro said.