The Arab Spring is flowering in myriad ways; in Yemen just one rocket attack on the presidential palace appears to have sealed the fate of one of the most durable dictators. President Ali Abdullah Saleh had defied protestors for weeks in the capital city of Sanaa and the rest of the country, with a lethal armed response resulting in scores of deaths; his defiance stemming as much from his personal stakes as from the dubious manner the world looks at the Yemeni crisis.
After initial denials by his officials his reported injuries in the attack were confirmed, but they insisted he was out of danger and would be addressing the nation shortly. But he did not and was instead evacuated to Riyadh for medical treatment - something the people of Yemen, particularly his political foes, had been waiting for a long time.
The two surgeries of Ali Abdullah Saleh have been declared successful, but he has been asked to stay on for a fortnight before returning to his country. In the meanwhile, in accordance with the constitution Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has taken over the presidential responsibilities and a kind of calm has been restored. The very news of President Saleh's departure from the country has set off a spate of celebrations, with people singing on the streets of Sanaa "Today, Yemen is new-born".
Is Yemen really 'new-born' in the wake of President Ali Abdullah Saleh's exit and have its citizens been restored the right to choose their rulers - that remains to be seen. He was certainly a hated ruler and his ouster was undoubtedly the people's burning desire. But given Yemen's unique geography and violence-prone history, the countries with time-tested leverage in its internal affairs tend to perceive the ongoing turmoil quite differently, often in sharp contrast to what its people are struggling against. And of them, Saudi Arabia has the greatest say; not only its offer of medical treatment was welcomed by President Saleh, the opponents too accepted the week-long cease-fire brokered by the Kingdom.
There can be no denial of the fact that the Saudi royal family would not like the Arab Spring to flower in a way that it threatens the Arab world monarchies. Employing its clout in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) it had successfully averted the collapse of the royal Bahraini house, and seems to be now working on the same pattern in Yemen. In the meantime, the Saudi Arabia would wait some other member of the President Saleh's family to take control. In case that doesn't materialise, for the Saudis the tribal confederation, headed by powerful Al-Hamar family that is presently in the forefront of the protestors' ranks, is equally acceptable. Preservation of the status quo in Yemen is the Saudis' best option.
If Saudi Arabia is looking at the growing turmoil in Yemen from its perspective of regional security, the maintenance of the status quo for the United States is no less crucial. On Washington's radar, the ongoing crisis in Yemen appears only in the context of al Qaeda and its strong grip on the land and the people. The fact that as the anti-Saleh movement gathered strength the Islamic militants took control of the town of Zinjibar is of great concern to the US and its western allies now deeply committed to ousting the Libyan dictator but double-minded on President Saleh's future. But given that Yemen is so closely connected to Saudi Arabia, the West has no choice but to follow what Riyadh decides as its next move. But that is not the way the Yemenis think; they are in midst of an Arab Spring and would like it to flower in all its hues - whatever the price.