The country's top leadership is actively engaged in political manoeuvrings to secure control of the Senate as half the Senate seats would become vacant in March 2012, with key losers being PML-Q, JUI (F), JI and some nationalist parties of Balochistan. The real fight in Senate elections is expected to be between the ruling PPP and PML-N which accounts for the latter supporting calls for early general elections by the end of the current year while the former is engaged in countering any such move.
The continuation of present dispensation for another year would give an absolute majority and control of the upper House for another three years, up till 2015, to the PPP. This is tacitly acknowledged by the PML (N) which is focusing on corruption and mismanagement by the Centre and supporting calls for early elections, ideally prior to March next year.
The PPP is opposed to any move about early elections and has formed coalitions with those it is ideologically opposed to in an effort to ensure that it remains in the government when the Senate elections become due in March.
However, political pundits declare that subsequent to the decision of the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) to dissociate itself from ruling coalition in Centre and Sindh, the political uncertainty is likely to deepen and the possibility of an early election could no longer be out-rightly ruled out. A total of 50 senators would be retiring in March 2012, 11 from each province, two from Federal Capital and four from FATA. From Punjab, nine senators of PML-Q, and one each of PPP and PML-N would retire in March 2012.
Similarly as many as three senators of each party, PML-Q, JI and JUI-F, and one each of PPP-S and ANP from Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa would be completing their tenure in March 2012. Four senators from Balochistan, each belonging to JUI-F, PML-Q and one each of National Party (NP), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) and NP-Awami would also retire next year.
From Sindh province, four senators of PPP, three of MQM, two of PML-Q and two of JUI-F would complete their tenure in March 2012. Senator Babar Awan, Dr, Abdul Hafiz Sheikh, Raza Rabbani, Safdar Abbasi and Ratna Bhagwabandas Chawla of the PPP, elected as Senators from Sindh, would also retire in March 2012 and would either be replaced or re-elected. Political analysts say that the PPP will be the major gainer in the Senate and is expected to win most of the seats from Sindh and other provinces vacated by the PML-Q and total seats of the party may be in excess of 40 in a 100-member House. The ANP would be another gainer in the Senate after the PPP and its strength is likely to increase considerably from existing six to around ten.
The PML-N with seven senators presently, all from Punjab, is likely to add almost the same number to the party in case the March 2012 Senate election is held under the present set up. This could make the passage of legislation difficult for the party if it won the general elections scheduled late next year. The PML-Q, JUI-F and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) as well as nationalist parties from Balochistan would be major losers and most of them may no longer have any representation in the Senate after March next year.
The senators retiring from the Punjab province in March 2012 are Javed Ali Shah (PML-Q), Lieutenant General (R) Javed Ashraf (PML-Q), Ishaq Dar (PML-N), Jamal Leghari (PML-Q), Naeem Chattha (PML-Q), Muhammad Ali Durrani (PML-Q) and Babar Awan (PPP), Gulshan Saeed (PML-Q) and Nilofar Bakhtiar (PML-Q) and Haroon Khan (PML-Q) and SM Zafar (PML-Q).
Those retiring from Sindh include Abdul Ghaffar Qureshi (PML-Q), Ahmed Ali (MQM), Khalid Soomro (JUI-F), Raza Rabbani(PPP), Safdar Abbasi(PPP), Khatu Mal (PPP) and Tahir Mashhadi (MQM), Ms Ratna Bhawandas Chawla (PPP), Semeen Siddiqui (PML-Q),Abdul Khaliq Pirzada (MQM), Abdul Hafeez Shaikh(PPP).
From Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Ammar Ahmed Khan (PML-Q), Maulana Gul Naseeb (JUI-F), Professor Khurshid (JIP), Ghufran Khan (PPP-Sherpao), Professor Ibrahim (JIP), Talha Mahmood (JUI-F), Saleem Saifullah (PML-Q). Afia Zia (JIP), Fauzia Fakharuz Zaman (PML-Q), Ilyas Bilour (ANP) and Azam Swati (JUI-F) will retire in March 2012.
Outgoing senators from Balochistan include Abdul Malik (NP), Rahim Mandokhail (PkMAP), Jan Jamali (PML-Q), Mir Israrullah (BNP-A), Mohabat Khan Marri (PML-Q), Ismail Buledi (JUI-F) and Shahid Hassan Bugti (JWP), Rehana Yahya Baloch (PML-Q) and Sabina Rauf (JUI-F), Rahmatullah Kakar(JUI-F) and Saeed Ahmed Hashmi (PML-Q). Tariq Azeem and Wasim Sajjad of PML-Q would be retiring from the federal capital on March 2012.