Europe woes hit Asia FX again, intervention spotted

15 Dec, 2011

The Indian rupee hit a record low against the dollar for a fourth consecutive session and the South Korean won stepped closer to technical support.

However, some Asian foreign exchange authorities were suspected of intervening to slow the slide in their currencies.

On Wednesday, Italy's funding costs hit a new euro era record at a bond auction, while Germany's chancellor and central banker rebuffed pressure for the European Central Bank to intervene decisively.

Adding to worries about the global economy on Thursday was a private survey showing that China's factory output is expected to shrink in December.

The gloomy pictures hit stocks and commodities, with the euro touching a 11-month low and the Australian dollar at a two-and-a-half week low.

"On charts for major currencies such as the euro and Australian dollar, critical levels have been broken. It is the turn of emerging Asian currencies now," said a senior dealer at an Asian bank in Kuala Lumpur.

The dealer said most of the regional units are at risk of weakening past their support.

Most emerging Asian currencies are poised to report losses for the year, thanks to the long and persisting worries about the euro zone's debt crisis.

The rupee has led the slide, having fallen 17.6 percent versus the dollar this year.

RUPEE NDF

The spread between one-year dollar/rupee and one-month dollar/rupee jumped to the highest in nearly eight months, indicating further weakness in the currency.

Dollar/rupee touched a record high of 54.30 as investors grew increasingly bearish about the outlook for both the domestic and global economies, raising the prospect of further capital outflows from emerging markets.

But some offshore traders said they spotted the central bank selling the pair around the session's high.

WON

Offshore funds and South Korean importers bought dollar/won , pushing the pair to near a technical resistance line at 1,164.8, the high on Nov. 25, although its upside was capped by exporters' supplies.

If the resistance is cleared, dollar/won may head to 1,180.4, the 76 percent Fibonacci retracement of its slide in October.

Dealers in Seoul and abroad suspected dollar-selling intervention by foreign exchange authorities, although the amount was not large, given subdued trading.

Foreign sold a net 290.6 billion won ($251.33 million) in Seoul stocks while buying a net 274.5 billion won in treasury bond futures.

BAHT

Dollar/baht is expected to rise to 31.44 after it breached the 76.4 percent retracement of its slide between late November and early December.

Earlier, Japanese banks sold the pair, which dealers said probably was linked to re-insurance for those affected by floods, but foreign banks chased it later.

Dealers in Bangkok are also looking to buy the pair on dips.

"I prefer to buy USD on dips until the year-end," said a Bangkok-based dealer, on expectations for dollar demand for repatriation by foreign investors.

Foreigners were net sellers in the Thai stock market during the previous three sessions.

PHILIPPINE PESO

Dollar/Philippine peso gained but it gave up some of the rises as the central bank was spotted selling the pair.

Investors reduced long positions after the release of data showing remittances in October rose to a new peak.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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