The dollar hit a record low versus the Swiss franc and a four-month trough against the yen on Monday as the impasse over raising the US debt ceiling unsettled financial markets and fuelled demand for perceived safe-haven currencies. The Swiss franc was the biggest beneficiary of the demand for safe havens, pushing the dollar nearly 2 percent lower to an all-time low of 0.8021 franc on trading platform EBS. The euro fell the same amount versus the Swiss currency.
Most investors expect a deal will be done before the August 2 deadline to avert default, but the lack of progress in talks over how to cut the budget deficit and the possibility of a ratings downgrade Of US debt weighed on risk sentiment, which analysts said would keep dogging the dollar.
The US Treasury says it will run out of money to pay the country's bills after August 2, though some analysts say the Treasury may be able to scrape some money together to get by for a week or two - a scenario that some market players are starting to think cannot be ruled out.
Many traders think the dollar could test a record low of 76.25 yen if concerns about the US debt ceiling worsen, while they also expect the US currency will keep plumbing all-time troughs versus the Swiss franc. "It's likely the US will stitch up some sort of deal to avoid a technical default next week, but it could drag on until the last moment," said Adam Cole, global head of FX at RBC.
The dollar slipped to 78.05 yen, its weakest since mid-March, with traders reporting selling from Asian sovereign accounts. It slipped slightly to 74.141 versus a currency basket, closing in on 73.889, a six-week low hit last week. "Below 74 in the dollar index could see it potentially down towards the record lows (around 70.70) hit in 2008," said Kathleen Brooks, head of research strategy at FOREX.com.
Cole at RBC warned a further, significant sell-off in the dollar against the yen and the Swiss franc was likely if Washington enters a technical default on its debt next month, of which he said the market was pricing in a 10 percent chance. In such a scenario, the dollar could plunge to 75 yen, while dollar/Swiss could fall "two or three big figures," he said.
The euro was last up 0.1 percent at $1.4375, but the euro zone's lingering debt risks kept traders wary over the single currency. It fell 2 percent versus the Swiss franc to 1.1531 francs. The euro initially slipped against the dollar after Moody's downgraded Greece by three notches to Ca from Caa1, though the impact was limited because the move was not a surprise and traders were focussed on the US debt saga. The sweeping bailout and policy package agreed by eurozone leaders last week helped stem market panic in the short run. But analysts say the measures may not be enough to bring the crisis to a swift resolution.