Partly Facetious: New IMF programme: Good luck to our government

02 Aug, 2011

"The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reduced the interest rate finally."
"Do you reckon this action would imply widening differences with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) team?"
"Where did the Fund come in?"
"I thought the IMF team and the government agreed that the SBP rate would remain high till inflation came down, see high interest rate mops up excess liquidity and..."
"And reduce the already declining productivity still further as the cost of borrowing rises?"
"OK, you want to have your cake and eat it too."
"This is not a subject that should be tackled facetiously. People are losing jobs because productivity is declining."
"That's the fault of the law and order and the lack of electricity and the..."
"OK, but the responsibility, the primary responsibility, of any central bank is to control inflation through its monetary policy and the interest rate is a critical tool available."
"Hey, I am not an economist but..."
"But I am just curious. The IMF programme remains stalled, no money has come in under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) since May 2010, and let's be honest the 2010-11 tax collections as well as the taxation proposals contained in 2011-12 budget have not led to any comfort level, which explains why the Fund team cancelled a scheduled visit in July and so my question is would not the SBP decision further alienate the Fund and ensure that the SBA remains stalled."
"We don't know if the SBP talked to the Fund or not?"
"True, but..."
"And we have to take decisions independent of the Fund. Aren't you the one who keeps arguing that home grown remedies are needed?"
"Yes, but that is not likely to happen if the government is on the IMF programme."
"We haven't been technically on it since May 2010, yes we have been trying to get back on it but..."
"I heard the government is considering going on another IMF programme."
"Good luck to the government! That is going to be infinitely harsher and therefore less likely to be implemented."
"Ah yes, there is that."

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