The government has decided to supply Iranian gas to Sui Northern Gas Pipelines (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC) with the ratio of 65: 35 respectively, which will be specifically dedicated for the power sector, sources close to Minister for Water and Power told Business Recorder.
The Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project aims at bringing natural gas from Iran to Pakistan by December 31, 2014. For this purpose, Inter State Gas System Limited (ISGS) signed a 'Gas Sale Purchase Agreement' (GSPA) with National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) in June, 2009. The GSPA became effective on June 13, 2010 and is binding on the GSPA parties.
The ECC, in its meeting on January 8, 2008, decided that ISGC may enter into back to back agreements with SNGPL and SSGC for resale of imported gas from Iran on terms similar to those contained in the Iranian GSPA. In pursuance of this decision, ISGC and SSGC/SNGPL are deliberating to sign respective GSPA. Similarly, the government has also decided that imported gas will be dedicated for power sector.
ISGC has given following details of gas to be imported from Iran and requested for allocation of gas to SSGC and SNGPL; (i) gas volume to be imported - 750 mmcfd (25 mmcfd for compressors use);(ii) delivery point- Nawabshah;(iii) delivery pressure-1200 psig, (iv) first gas date - December 31, 2014. First year gas availability will be 35 percent of total volume- second year 65 percent of total volume and third year 100 percent.
To evaluate gas requirement of SNGPL and SSGC, a gas demand supply study has been conducted in consultation with both gas utility companies. The constrained average day gas demand -supply excluding imports is projected as follows:
On SNGPL system in 2011-12 supply is 2, 110 mmcfd, against demand of 3,326 mmcfd, showing a shortfall of 1,216 mmcfd. In 2012-13- supply will be 2,180 mmcfd, against demand of 3,492 mmcfd, indicating a shortfall of 1,312. In the year 2013-14- supply is expected to be 2,193 mmcfd, against demand of 3,638 mmcfd, depicting shortfall of 1,445 mmcfd. In 2014-15- supply will be around 1,886 mmcfd as compared to demand of 3,558 mmcfd, showing a gap of 1,872 mmcfd.
In 2015-16, shortfall will be 2,092 mmcfd as supply will stand at 1,796 mmcfd against demand of 3,888 mmcfd. In 2016-17, supply will be 1,499 mmcfd against demand of 4,015, showing a shortfall of 2,516 mmcfd and supply in 2017-08 will be 1,337 mmcfd against a demand 2,811 mmcfd.
On SSGC system in 2011-12, supply-1131 mmcfd-demand- 1411 mmcfd- shortfall- 280 mmcfd. In 2012-13, supply 1,285 mmcfd-demand- 1,485 mmcfd- shortfall-200 mmcfd. In 2013-14, gas supply-1,211 mmcfd-demand-1,536 mmcfd and shortfall- 325 mmcfd. In 2014-15, supply 1,071 mmcfd- demand -1,584 mmcfd- shortfall- 513 mmcfd. In 2015-16, supply will be 897 mmcfd against demand of 1634 mmcfd which implies shortfall will be 737 mmcfd. In 2016-17, supply will stand at 776 mmcfd against demand of 1691 mmcfd depicting shortage of 915 mmcfd. In 2007-08- supply will be 674 mmcfd against demand of 1,753 mmcfd showing a shortfall of 1,079 mmcfd.
These projections indicate that in 2014-15, SNGPL system will be facing a shortfall of 1872 mmcfd while SSGC will be facing a shortfall of 513 mmcfd. Even at present, un-met gas demand of the power plants connected with SSGC and SNGPL is more than 700 mmcfd.
According to sources, in view of current ratio of gas volume being marketed by SNGPL and SSGC and projected demand on their system, Petroleum Ministry has proposed that Iranian gas should be shared between SNGPL and SSGC with the ratio of 65:35.
This implies that 471 mmcfd of gas will be allocated to SNGPL and 254 mmcfd to SSGC system. Sources said that SNGPL and SSGC will supply imported gas only to efficient power plants, to be identified by Ministry of Water and Power after entering into back to back GSPA with the plants management.