Ukraine is likely to harvest about 53 million tonnes of grain in 2011 compared to 39.2 million in 2010 and the previous 2011 outlook of 51-52 million tonnes, Farm Minister Mykola Prysyazhnyuk said on Wednesday. "This year, we plan to harvest about 53 million tonnes of grain. It will be one of the highest harvests in Ukrainian history. This volume allows us to export about 27 million tonnes," the ministry quoted Prysyazhnyuk as saying.
He said Ukraine, which harvested 45.8 million tonnes of grain bunker weight as of October 17, would be the world's largest exporter of barley, the third largest exporter of maize and No 8 in export of wheat. But the former Soviet republic has exported only 3.84 million tonnes of grain so far this season (July-June) against 4.8 million in the same period a season earlier, when markets were disrupted by a severe drought in the Black Sea region.
Ukraine's grain exports totalled 400,000 tonnes in the first 13 days of October or just a half of the export volume in the same period in September. Traders and agriculture officials have said the export duties are the main reason for the small shipments. Ukraine's parliament last week cancelled export duties for wheat and maize but kept in place the levy on exports of barley.
The law needs to be signed by president Victor Yanukovich and published to come into force. The parliament submitted the law to the President last week and the country's leader has to decide whether will he sign the law or reject it by October 22. Local media said the law was likely to be signed on Wednesday or Thursday.
Traders said the new trade regime would allow the market to revive and Ukraine might export up to 2.0 million tonnes of grain in October, but they do not expect a sudden spike because of competition from plentiful Russian and Kazakh grain. Ukraine exported 1.48 million tonnes of grain in September.
"The market is waiting for the presidential signature. If yes, we could boost shipments and reach 1.8-2.0 million tonnes (of export) this month," a trader from a large foreign company told Reuters. "We are loading some ships and we are waiting for the cancelling of the duty to send ships to clients," another trader said.
Analysts said the latest official forecasts for the 2011 grain harvest and exports were too high and noted that Ukrainian transport infrastructure could not ship abroad 24 million tonnes of grain during the next 8 months. "I do not believe in such high figures. The maximum level of the harvest is 50 million tonnes, maximum level of exports (for the whole season) - 24 million," said analyst Mykola Vernytsky from ProAgro consultancy.
"We have already missed four months of this season and I do not understand how we can export an additional 23-24 million tonnes by the end of this season". UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy forecast the harvest at 46.8 million tonnes and the exports at about 22 million tonnes.
APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said Ukraine was likely to harvest 46 million tonnes of grain and would export about 21 million tonnes in 2011/12. Ukraine, which limited exports last season after a severe drought, exported 12.7 million tonnes of grain in 2010/11.