During the last week, weather remained dry and sunny in almost all cotton areas of Sindh and Punjab provinces. Winter season is creeping in keeping temperatures lower during the nights, which would help cotton crop improve fibre length.
Reports of larger seed-cotton arrivals are pouring in anticipation of weeklong Eid holiday mood. The growers do not want to store seed-cotton in warehouse because of threat of pilferage or theft and deterioration in quality of cotton. With the drop in temperature, the momentum of boll opening has accelerated prompting cotton picking. The trade circles estimate that by the end of this October month, total seed-cotton arrivals may touch the level of 7.0 million bales.
If we look at the cotton arrival record of last seven years (2004-05 to 2010-11), we come to know that averagely 50.57 percent crop arrived by the end of each October month but variation from season to season was great which ranged from lowest 37.3 percent in 2006-07, when crop was late, to 65.0 percent when crop was bumper and early. If we apply this average of 50.57 percent in this season, we get a crop of 14.0 million bales but this season crop is late and we expect even larger crop.
Last week, the official Cotton crop Assessment Committee in its first meeting, taking stock of the situation and crop arrival figures, determined the size of cotton crop at 12.2 million bales of 170-Kg each. It is unfortunate that size of Pakistan cotton crop is mentioned in number of bales which widely vary in weight, although standard weight has been fixed at 170 Kg with perhaps 3 percent variation either side while size of cotton crop of other countries is mentioned in tonnage, which is the standard weight system. The concerned official quarters and the Associations should make it a point to invariably mention size of our crop in metric tons so that it can easily be understood and compared with the crop size of other country and also itself.
The Government of Pakistan has Cotton Vision 2015, according to which by 2015 ie by season 2015-16, our production target has been fixed at 20.70 million 170-Kg bales, our domestic mill consumption at 20.10 mln bales, yield per hectare at 1,060 Kgs and exportable surplus at 0,60 million bales. This season and in many last seasons, we have averagely exported over half a million bales a season despite being cotton deficient country instead of cotton surplus country. Suppose this season we are producing 14.0 million local weight (Kgs 155/bale) equivalent to 12.76 million 170-Kg standard weight bales. Now, we have four seasons to achieve the target of 20.70 million 170-Kg bales vision. The difference of 8 million bales which, if divided equally by on four seasons, comes to 2.0 million bales increase each year which does not appear achievable on the face of present conditions.
One document on Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) mentioned that as per overview of cotton season 2004-2005 to 2008-2009, cotton area declined by 11 percent, production declined by 17 percent, farm yield (seed-cotton in Kgs per hectare) decreased by 7 percent. How can we expect to achieve a sizable performance targets when business, industry, finance, law and order, living and other conditions appear deteriorating fast.
In the same Cotton Vision 2015, our cotton quality parameters are also targeted to be improved to such a level that by 2015, our yarn recovery may be increased from present level of 84 percent to 92 percent. In this regard, this analyst very painfully mentions that Pakistan started the work on Cotton Grading and Standardisation in 1983 with the financial assistance of United Nation Development Programme and technical assistance of Food and Agriculture Organisation of UNO. For this purpose, the services of the three reputed and qualified cotton experts from Egypt were hired finally for about 10 years and the system was properly and duly developed and successfully applied for many years but it has now been made redundant visibly due to the efforts of some vested interests.
Now, Pakistan, being the third largest cotton producing country, a prominent cotton yarn exporting country and cotton importing country, its cotton quality is not determined on internationally accepted principles although a proper and scientific Cotton Grading and Standards system is there not for implementation but for keeping on the shelf. This Cotton Grading and Standard system has already been approved and accepted by international agencies but home agencies do not like it on obvious reasons. The Pakistan Cotton Standards Institute (PCSI), now a statutory body, has been established with the backing of a legal instrument passed by the President of Pakistan in 2002.
The PCSI has a strength of more than 200 people mostly cotton professionals with some eight fibre testing laboratories costing about Rs 150-200 million. On this project of Cotton Grading and Standardisation system, estimated Rs 2,0 billions have been spent rather lost with no result. The PCSI is still there but with no work and all are sitting idle wasting millions of rupees every month on establishment. The government should make a committee of some experts to examine the gross negligence of making this Institute inoperative and further draw a road map for the best utilisation of the services of this Institute for the promotion of cotton and textile trade. It is an admitted fact that Pakistan cotton loses US Cents 7 to 8 per lb due to low quality. By improving quality of cotton through implementation of cotton grading and standardisation system, we can increase value of our lint cotton by 7 to 8 lb which amounts to US $360 millions every year - a great loss. Unless we have commitment and seriousness, we can neither improve our cotton production nor quality of cotton to benefit our country.
The real implementation of cotton grading and standardisation system on entire cotton crop can guarantee increase of yarn recovery from 84 percent to 92 percent as envisaged in Cotton Vision 2015.
Trade circles estimate our cotton production at 14.0 million running bales and estimated domestic consumption almost equal to our season's cotton crop.
In the local market, cotton prices remained depressed on selling pressure although NY cotton futures showed increase of US Cents 7.46 to 104.32 from last week in December contract. This increase in prices was not expected generally but some factors such as much weaker US Dollar, some sigh of relief in European Euro crisis and higher US export sales contributed positively. Currency balancing problems in Japan and China are there which pressurise global economic factors. Cotton prices in Pakistan may remain depressed due to week long Eid holidays and other disturbing factors such as economic, financial, law & order and acute power shortage hindering the running wheel of our economy.