Former US secretary of state James Baker predicted Wednesday that there would be no breakthrough in Arab-Israeli peace talks before the US elections next year. Speaking at a gathering to mark the 20th anniversary of the Madrid peace talks, Baker also said conditions are not ripe for peacemaking because the Palestinians are divided and the Israeli government is holding back.
President Barack Obama's administration revived Israeli-Palestinian peace talks in September last year only to see them stall weeks later after Israel refused to renew a partial freeze on settlements in occupied territories. "In my opinion, nothing much is going to happen between now and the 2012 election in this country," said Baker, who was the chief US diplomat under Republican president George H.W. Bush.
Analysts say US administrations tend to be more cautious in brokering the Arab-Israeli negotiations during election campaigns for fear of offending powerful supporters of Israel. "In my view, there is no chance of a breakthrough in the Arab-Israeli peace process in the coming year and frankly that may not be all bad because the last thing we need now is another failure," he said.
"One lesson of Madrid is that the time has to be right for any success in the Arab-Israeli dispute," he said recalling changes in the Soviet Union and the rise of US power following the US-led victory in the 1991 Gulf war. Nor will the right conditions arise, he said, if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government stays in power and the Palestinians fail to bridge the gap between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
"The Israeli government must be one that is prepared to lean forward for peace as Yitzhak Rabin was. The current Israeli government, I'm sad to say, fails that test," Baker said. In the meantime, he said, it is crucial to maintain the Israeli-Hamas cease-fire in Gaza and preserve the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty which has come under strain following Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's overthrow.
It is also important for the US to continue promoting Palestinian-Israeli security co-operation in the West Bank as well as to continue helping the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority develop political institutions and the economy. Once all the key conditions are met, he said, the US president must invite to Washington an Israeli prime minister determined to make peace and a Palestinian leader backed by his people.
The US administration should then present its own proposal outlining the contours of a final settlements linked to a "detailed timeline" for talks on key issues like borders, security, Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem. Baker accused the Obama administration of lacking both leadership and political will in pushing peace talks, but said his comments were not partisan.