It is common for a certain variety of wise men and women in this country to say people are themselves to blame for so much that is wrong with this country. They keep electing the same leaders over and over again and then complain of corruption and bad governance, so goes the argument. What is ignored is the fact that the people have to choose from options available on the ballot paper.
And in that they have demonstrated great maturity whenever given an opportunity. Hence have emerged the PPP and the PML-N as the two major players, like in the well-established democracies of Britain and the US. It is no coincidence that religious parties are always consigned to the periphery in an otherwise deeply religious society.
Our short and checkered democratic history illustrates the people have always been responsive to issues based politics. In the ideologically driven politics of the 70s the PPP and the Muslim League represented the left and right wing politics of the time. After the end of the long, dark interregnum of the Zia years, the old polarisation once again reflected itself in electoral politics although the PPP had shifted from its left-of-the-centre to a centrist, rather rightist, position. Still, it was regarded as a liberal party as opposed to Nawaz Sharif-led and establishment-backed Muslim League. That made it easier for people to decide which side to vote for. Another military intervention later, the PPP and the PML-N have switched places as pro and anti-establishment parties. The Zardari-led PPP government, tainted by a common perception of rampant corruption and rank incompetence, has abandoned the party's liberal orientation as well. Thanks to the leadership's acts of omission and commission, the party now is in complete disarray, and most of its traditional voters alienated.
In the post-2008 elections period, Nawaz Sharif emerged as the most popular leader because of his principled stand on the independence of the judiciary and the military's role in politics. The PPP's losses were expected to be his gains. Few doubted that Nawaz Sharif was the prime minister-in-waiting; that is, until Imran Khan showed his political muscle at a public rally in Lahore, iterating his vow to eliminate the twin scourges of corruption and terrorism promising also to replace the country's rentier status vis-a-vis the US with a relationship of mutual respect - issues that resonate with all kinds of citizens. Sharif may still win the next elections. Maybe he won't. But one thing is clear: the old political equation confronts a serious challenge from Imran's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI). The party is suddenly a force to be reckoned with. Still, some people have reservations. That was Lahore, they say, which may hurt the PML-N to a certain extent in central and northern Punjab; and that the PTI may also make some gains in Fata and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But it has no chance of success elsewhere. The assessment may prove to be a case of gross underestimation.
Over the years, the PPP's Punjab support base has shrunk to the province's southern region. That is about to change. Shah Mehmood Qureshi's resignation from the party as well as his National Assembly seat may not be such a momentous event. But he does not seem to be alone. At least two PPP Punjab Assembly members, while expressing dissatisfaction with the way the leadership manages party affairs, have said they are in contact with him, and further that they have the support of more than 20 MPAs who could all walk out of the party with them. Some other influential south Punjab politicians, the turncoat type, too are getting ready to join the PTI in anticipation of better days to come.
Qureshi is to formally announce his future course of action at a November 27 public rally in Sindh's Ghotki district, where he has a large following as custodian of two revered shrines, Bahauddin Zakria and Shah Rukn-e-Alam in Multan. He is expected to draw a huge gathering there. True, people do not necessarily vote for their spiritual guides - a notable example being that of Pir Pagaro. Qureshi has other claims to fame. True also that he alone can't cause much trouble to the PPP. What if the disgruntled MPAs come to his side? That will put paid to the PPP's electoral fortunes in Punjab.
Although Qureshi is yet to announce his future course of action, according to Imran
Khan, he is to join the PTI. Imran himself is already scheduled to be the main speaker at the Ghotki rally, which could not have happened without mutual consultation. It is hard to imagine Qureshi sharing the podium with the PTI chief to announce joining his rivals in the PML-N.
Imran is all set to venture out to other parts of the country next month. He is to address two public meetings at Mardan and Charsadda amid reports that a sitting MNA of the ANP, Mohammad Khan Hoti, and a former federal minister presently associated with Muslim League's Likeminded faction, Nisar Mohammad Khan, will formally join the PTI at those meetings on December 16 and 12, respectively. These developments, of course, show which way the winds of political change are blowing. PTI chief's next stop on December 25 holds special significance. He is to address a rally at the Quaid-e-Azam's mausoleum, which he claims will be bigger, if not as big, as the one in Lahore. That rally will be an important test of his national level leadership potential. So far there is no known plan for a rally in Quetta. Imran is believed to be in touch with Baloch dissidents. He had told the Lahore gathering of his contact with Balochistan National Party President Sardar Akhtar Mengal. A month earlier, Mengal, who lives in self-exile in Dubai, had turned down Prime Minister Gilani's invitation to attend an important APC because of an ongoing military operation and reports of extra-judicial killings in his province. The PTI may succeed in stitching together some kind of an alliance in that restive province, too.
All that, though, is in the future. The upcoming public rallies would help measure the party's real worth. Considering that the issues it raises touch a chord with people across political divides, it may spring surprises a la Lahore rally. Whatever happens next, the coming general elections promise to bring back issues based politics to the front and centre of national discourse.
saida_fazal@yahoo.com