China's yuan ends at record high, reverses early losses

19 Dec, 2011

Dealers said the yuan was merely clawing back losses against the dollar in afternoon trade after being dragged down by data showing signs of capital outflow from China, and news of the death of North Korea's leader sparked safe-haven dollar demand.

"Actually, the dollar faced selling pressure today as the central bank has shown it will keep the yuan stable," said a dealer at a European bank in Shanghai. "So, the expectation of yuan depreciation has decreased."

The People's Bank of China was suspected of having stepped in to support the yuan last Friday.

In the morning session, the yuan shrugged off the central bank's stronger mid-point fixing, and was weighed down by a firmer dollar and more signs of capital outflow from China.

The dollar index was moving above 80 following North Korean state media reports of the demise of the leader of the reclusive nation, Kim Jong-il.

"The North Korean leader's death boosted some safe-haven dollar demand but we cannot see a long term impact on the yuan. The yuan's movements will still be guided by the central bank," a dealer at an Asian bank in Shanghai said.

Dealers said the yuan also faced some depreciation pressure after data showed China's central bank and commercial banks were net sellers of foreign exchange in November for the second consecutive month, pointing to capital outflows as Beijing usually buys foreign exchange to rein in the yuan

But the yuan still traded within a narrow range around 6.33 to 6.35 on Monday, underlining the central bank's intention to keep the Chinese currency stable.

"The central bank's most important aim is to keep the yuan stable amid an unstable global economy," the Asian bank dealer said.

Indeed, the yuan jumped to a record high last Friday against the dollar on suspected intervention orchestrated by the central bank, its most explicit action in three months to deter speculators from betting on a fall in the currency.

Spot yuan ended at 6.3378 against the dollar, up from 6.3484 at the close on Friday. It has still risen 3.97 percent so far this year and 7.71 percent since it was depegged in June 2010.

Before trading began, the PBOC fixed the day's mid-point at 6.3303, stronger than Friday's 6.3352. The central bank uses the fixing to express the government's intention for the yuan's daily movement.

Benchmark offshore one-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) have largely been forecasting yuan depreciation in a year's time since late September, reversing a trend of appreciation since the yuan's revaluation in July 2005.

One-year NDFs were bid at 6.4170 on Monday against 6.4060 at the close on Friday, implying that the yuan would depreciate 1.37 percent in 12 months from Thursday's PBOC mid-point, compared with a 1.20 percent fall implied on Friday.

Copyright Reuters, 2011

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