Sugar production in Maharashtra state is likely to miss a target of 9.3 million tonnes forecast in August by the government as cane yields are lower than expected, industry officials said, which could hit India's surplus available for exports.
India, the world's top consumer, has estimated it will produce 25 million tonnes in the 12 months starting October 1, 2011 on the back of an anticipated record output of 9.3 million tonnes in western Maharashtra state, the country's top producer. The government has already allowed one million tonnes of exports for the 2011/12 under Open General Licence (OGL), which only imposes quantity restrictions on sales. It allowed 1.5 million tonnes of OGL exports in 2010/11. The industry is now asking the government to allow up to four million tonnes of exports this year, as it should have enough surplus given domestic demand of about 22 million tonnes and carry forward stocks of six million tonnes.
"We are witnessing lower yields as rainfall distribution was uneven. This year the cane crop got the bulk of rainfall in a short span, which wasn't good," said Mohan Patil, cane development officer at Sahyadri co-operative mill based in Satara district of the state.
"Besides, this year we have more ratoon crop for crushing than last year. Yields from ratoon crop are lower, which will pull down overall yields," Patil said. Ratoon is the root stub of cane after the first harvest that remains in the ground to grow again for a second harvest. "We had forecast cane production based on the planted area and assuming yields will remain at last year's level. From initial reports it seems yields will be lower than last year," said an official at the state's Sugar Commissioner's office.