US hopes for a quick end to its dispute with Egypt over pro-democracy groups have been dashed, stranding both countries in a dangerous limbo as pressures build on a security partnership that is vital to Washington. The Obama administration had hoped the row over Egypt's raids on US-funded groups and its travel bans on a handful of US citizens would conclude this month with a face-saving deal that would release the Americans and put US ties with Cairo back on track.
But an Egyptian court's decision on Sunday to adjourn the case until late April opened a risky new chapter in the dispute - leaving the door open to a solution, but also sharply raising the danger of permanent political damage on both sides. "We are continuing to work hard to try to resolve this as soon as we can," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said on Monday. "We are concerned that this is not yet settled." To drive home the point, Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman summoned the Egyptian ambassador to the State Department, the latest in a series of high-level meetings including two last week between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Egyptian counterpart.
US officials have made clear that the $1.3 billion in annual military aid to Egypt has been put at risk by the case, in which 43 foreign and Egyptian non-governmental organisation workers have been accused of receiving illegal foreign funds. They are also alledged to have carried out political activities unrelated to their work and failing to obtain necessary operating licenses.
If the case drags on, it could cause longer-term damage in US relations with Egypt, which has been a pillar of Washington's alliances in the Arab world and, along with Jordan, is the only Arab country to have a peace treaty with Israel. The diplomatic timing is also tricky. With Egyptian prosecution lawyers airing espionage accusations, the country gearing up for a presidential election before the end of June and the US Congress already questioning continued aid to Egypt, many analysts say the case could veer even more wildly off track if it is not stopped in coming weeks.
"The chances that the United States and Egypt will have a breach over aid have gone up," said Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "What also seems obvious is that this case is going to continue, and may actually reach its climax in the midst of the Egyptian presidential election. The idea of a smooth, face-saving resolution seems to be retreating." Clinton is expected to address the case when she testifies on Tuesday before a US Senate committee.
Supporters of the NGOs and some political analysts took heart from the adjournment of the case, pointing out that the court could have taken more aggressive action such as formally ordering the arrest of the accused. By pausing the judicial proceedings, they argue, the court may allow more time for diplomacy to work. "They just sort of punted here. They were clearly not ready to resolve it, but also not to escalate it further," said Michele Dunne, director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council.