Tired of being fed “nothing but lies and deceit”, does Uncle Sam really want to break-up with Pakistan? Well, with the security dollars frozen and drone strikes back on, it appears that the change-of-heart in DC is real this time. Facing turbulent times, Pakistan, which looks short of friends in a mercurial administration, faces no-win choices.

So far, Pakistan hasn’t shut the door on future cooperation despite US provocations. But it also looks tired, of being badgered about “sanctuaries” every time there is a terrorist attack in Kabul. Since the relationship doomed in the aftermath of Abbotabad operation, mutual disenchantment has gradually grown. Trump is incidental to the process – but his words have surely hastened the sunder.

The message from a hostile White House has consistently been that the ball is in Pakistan’s court. If Pakistan eliminates alleged safe havens, the US will resume normal business. But American “leverage” seems questionable. Its armed forces are dependent on their logistics’ passage through Pakistan. Besides, Americans are also dependent on Pakistan’s active intelligence cooperation in certain areas.

Perhaps knowing its self-worth, the jilted lover seems to have moved on. The premier and his leading cabinet members have been taking veiled shots, in public, at US “failures” in Afghanistan. Pakistan is looking elsewhere. The country’s defence minister told Financial Times last Sunday US “castigation” had forced Pakistan to undergo a “regional recalibration” of its foreign and security policies towards China and Russia.

Has the US-Pak bilateral reached a point of no return? While the “rupture” doesn’t look permanent yet, the guessing game is in full swing. The two nations have been here before, albeit in different eras and under different circumstances. The smart money should be on this nation’s elite pulling from the brink, as they have done so on several occasions past, to preserve their own privileges.

But in case this time is really different, the ride may get a little bumpier for Pakistan, for at least three reasons.

One, the US would soon realize that its “leverage” on Pakistan is overstated. So, it may end up escalating pressure on Pakistan through strikes and sanctions. Though he has given no timeline for withdrawal, Trump only has a couple of good years to “win” the war in Afghanistan before his 2020 re-election campaign starts. Two more years of warfare will likely fail Afghanistan again, with all the nasty consequences for Pakistan, which has just managed to achieve a semblance of stability.

Two, playing up the “China Card” to counter US wouldn’t yield much. History shows that while China has indeed stood by Pakistan’s side in many diplomatic crises, there is a limit to China’s interventions when it comes to Pakistan facing off the US. Pakistan has long balanced its interests when it comes to US and China. It is not used to choosing between the two. And should Pakistan choose to lean even more on China, some immediate reprieve may come at the cost of consequences for its economic sovereignty.

And three, a standoff with the US in an environment marked by a deeply polarized polity and society and a fragile economy will weaken Pakistan further. The country needs to stand united to not only counter external threats but also put own house in order. Amid political chaos, an elected government with a fresh mandate may be able to provide the answers. But the elections, if held on time, are still months away.