Yields on major government bonds will rise only slightly in the coming year as the global economic recovery stutters and huge amounts of liquidity continue to swirl through markets, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
With glimmers of hope that the euro zone's debt crisis is receding and some signs of economic recovery, yield forecasts in the poll of around 50 bond strategists were generally revised up marginally from a poll taken a month ago. But median yield forecasts, taken over the last week, are still well down from levels reached last year and will remain low as central banks keep interest rates at rock bottom rates.
"It is a nudge up, it's still historically pretty low. We are probably in, or slightly past, the worst of the growth slowdown in the euro zone and the United States," said John Davies at WestLB.
"Our forecasts are suggesting that the real weak point is here and the economy gradually strengthens from here - not amazingly, but certainly that fear of persistent recession can retreat."