Economic sanctions and the threat of military intervention by Mali's neighbours could force the country's coup leaders to embrace political dialogue and reverse their government overthrow, analysts said Wednesday. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has suspended Mali and said it would "take all necessary measures to end the rebellion and secure the territorial integrity of Mali, including the use of force."
According to Mali analyst Anna Osborne, the junta's rhetoric is already softening. "In recognition of its weakening position, the leadership are eager to seek a political situation," she told dpa. "The junta's announcement of a new constitution according to ECOWAS demands is indicative of attempts to show willingness for the restoration of democratic rule," she said.
But even if the coup leaders comply with the regional bloc's measures, many Malians fear a long, drawn-out return to democracy. Many businesses re-opened Wednesday, six days after the US-trained Captain Sanogo and his men seized power from President Amadou Toumani Toure, who is more commonly referred to by his initials, ATT.
Toure's exact whereabouts remained unknown, although the African Union maintained that it was in regular contact with him, and that he was safe and well. Benin's President Yayi Boni - a key member of the ECOWAS group - meanwhile stressed the importance of resolving the situation through dialogue, before imposing force.
"We need to make our Malian brothers realize that even though they took power using weapons, the only reasonable solution is to embrace dialogue first of all, so that constitutional life can be restored," he said. Radio France International (RFI) reported that the junta was in talks with Mali's National Assembly leader, Dioncounda Traore. Installing Traore as interim leader would satisfy the short-term demands of ECOWAS and open the door for improved dialogue, RFI said.
Osborne said the coup leaders, already under deep pressure and faced with limited military resources, were likely to do all they could to avoid the use of force. "In the event of an ECOWAS intervention against the rebels, violence is also likely to be prolonged and lead to further operational disruptions in the north," she said.
Although the international community has been unanimous in its condemnation of the coup, the issue has divided Malians. A youth movement dubbed M22, or Popular Movement of March 22, has been set up to back the junta. But a counter-movement, the United Front to Safeguard the Democracy of the Republic (FUDR) is calling for the ECOWAS measures to be implemented as soon as possible.
Since seizing power last week, the junta have made little political progress, analysts said. But they have succeeded in re-opening gold mines in Africa's third-biggest gold producer. According to the Australian Oklo Resources mining company, senior members of the junta held a meeting with foreign gold companies earlier this week, promising to support their operations.
Gilles Yabi, the West Africa-based head of International Crisis Group (ICG), said the coup leaders were realising they had bitten off more than they could chew. "The graveyard of Africa's political experiences is filled with military transitions that went wrong," he said. "Captain Sanogo and his men can't offer solutions to the urgent needs of the country."
On Wednesday, witnesses in Bamako said that cash withdrawals from some banks had been limited, prompting fears that economic sanctions were already being imposed. Amadou Soumani, who owns a motorbike repair shop, said that he was afraid sanctions could make the situation worse.
"If they cut us off, then what will happen? We don't want the international community to make a bigger mess," he said. Earlier Wednesday, thousands of people took to the streets of the capital in support of the junta. According to local media, they waved signs that read, "Down with ATT," "Down with the international community" and "Sanogo is the solution!"
"Democracy in Mali was only ever a facade," wrote one commentator on the news website maliactu.net. "I've always dreamed of seeing power in the hands of young people in Mali, like the current situation." Despite the support for the junta on the ground, Osborne said the message from the international community remained strong. ECOWAS sanctions would "narrow the life-span of the transition" back to democracy, she said. Nevertheless, she estimated, even if the coup leaders comply with demands, a return to normality could take as long as six months.