One wondered at the firmness which Maulana Fazlur Rehman, JUI-F chief displayed in his opposition to resumption of Nato supplies, in his postures, interviews, public speeches, TV discussions and even in his talk with the American ambassador Cameron Munter. Throughout these posturings, the Maulana remained true to his recently discovered and incessantly reiterated theme: no restoration of Nato supplies under any circumstances! Full stop!
The wily leader appeared to have shed his persistent image of the one who always sidles to authority (local or foreign) once the right price is offered. In huge gatherings across the country, he stuck to his theme: No Nato supplies under any circumstances!
One-to-one with Munter Then he met the American Ambassador Munter who was advised by him to wait for the Parliamentary Committee's final recommendations, in which, up to that time the Maulana had not participated. What else passed between the two one cannot help wondering, from recollection of happenings in the past. His erstwhile partners in MMA - especially JI, still recall bitterly how he made a fool of them all by delaying resignation of the MMA government in NWFP to a point which enabled Musharraf's election to take place with all Assemblies intact, which it was MMA's declared endeavour to prevent. This distrust in the Maulana has prevented the revival of MMA in the current scenario.
Zardari Magic and willing victim To return to Nato supplies, in huge public gatherings in the North West the Maulana has earned plaudits for his stand and appeared to have succeeded to some extent in shoring up his political and personal standing following incessant attacks on both by PTI Chief Imran Khan. Then the Maulana had a meeting with wizard Zardari! The surprise was over. The chips fell where they always belonged for the Maulana after his meeting with President Zardari, both evenly matched in guile and maneuver. The first step by the Maulana was to agree to join the PCNS and then the next one was to sign on the dotted line on a recommendation including an agreement to allow Nato supplies to resume under stipulated conditions - a major departure from his stand of the last few weeks or so. Naturally there was speculation about what exactly he got in return from the President as pro quid quo.
Too much space? We are wasting too much space on the Maulana, you think? Maybe! But the Maulana has an unhealthy influence on the country's politics and wields a two-edged weapon - one edge lined with a perfect sense of timing and the other with a Machiavellian approach to politics! You could admire him or find fault with him but you cannot ignore him!
PML-N plays true to type PMLN did not come out shining either. After participating fully in the formulation of the original recommendation of the PCNS the party struck a discordant note by coming up with amendments towards strengthening the recommendations. One statement by Chaudhry Nisar opposition leader in the Parliament, however, is worth remembering and recalling in days to come. In the statement he warned against only those points of the final agreement which favoured the American position on various points of the Pak/US relations getting implemented at once and others which do not please them, getting bogged down indefinitely in negotiations! That might well happen.
Parliament signs on the dotted line As expected the joint sitting of parliament on Thursday unanimously adopted the revised recommendations of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security (PCNS) on new terms of engagement with the United States. The revised recommendations were presented to the joint session by Senator Raza Rabbani, Chairman PCNS, and were passed. Let us look at some of the recommendations and the questions that arise thereon.
What exactly did the unanimous resolution recommend?
1) Recommendation: Seek immediate cessation of drone attacks inside Pakistan's territory.
Question: Is this a precondition or a follow up action after resumption of Nato supplies ie does "seek" come after "supplies' restoration"?
2) Recommendation: No passage of any Nato military equipment and ammunition through Pakistan.
Question: Does not non-military equipment also squarely support Nato forces' occupation of Afghanistan and prolong the misery Afghan people who continue to suffer? In any case how much of the supplies comprised military hardware before they were stopped following Salala?
3) Recommendation: No foreign military bases inside Pakistan.
Question: Do we have any such bases presently?
4) Recommendation: No private security contractors and/or intelligence operatives allowed.
Question: How will the recommendation be implemented and violations detected, checked and prevented? Why is an eight-storey US embassy complex going up in the heart of Islamabad? Who permitted it? Does America have such a big embassy in any other country in the world?
5) Recommendation: Pakistan should seek an unconditional apology for the Salala incident.
Question: US sources have suggested Pakistan was responsible for the incident. America may nevertheless grandly offer to apologise as a major concession and ask for one in return.
6) Recommendation: No crossing into Pakistan territory on any pretext, including hot pursuit, Q: Will the US agree to step back from its firm, oft-declared position? What if the "prize" were Mullah Umar?
7) Recommendation: No verbal agreement on national security shall be entered into by the government or any department or organisation with any foreign government or authority. All such agreements or understandings shall cease to have effect forthwith.
Q: How will this be implemented in practice? Will the Parliament enact laws to punish transgressors, however powerful?
8) Recommendation: The US-Indo civil nuclear agreement has significantly altered the strategic balance in the region; therefore, Pakistan should seek a similar treatment from the US and other states.
Q: Any likelihood of a quick positive response at the expense of US/India relations?
9) Recommendation: No overt or covert operations inside Pakistan shall be permitted
Q: Will the US reverse its hot-pursuit policy?
10) Recommendation: The international community to recognise Pakistan's colossal human and economic losses in the war on terror. In the minimum, greater market access of Pakistan's exports to the US, Nato countries and global markets should be actively pursued.
Q: Will we get any results on this without accepting the expectedly negative American position on more vital recommendations?
Who will oversee implementation? From our side, that is. We have a tradition of weak and corrupt rulers, always in need of bail outs and dole-ins from western powers and therefore in no position to take a stand in line with the country's sovereignty and national interest. Will it be any different in the context of Pak/US relations? With no political party likely to emerge with a comfortable majority in the General Elections (taking place hopefully in a year or so) and the country's economy in doldrums, the emergent government in Pakistan is likely to get a raw deal in negotiations with the super power. In any case much harm may be done even before that, while the present set up is in control of things. Bad times ahead, one way or another, or so it seems! Sorry, if that sounds pessimistic!
(owajid@yahoo.com)