The sharp fall in soyabean prices in recent days is premature and tight supply fundamentals are likely to keep prices well supported in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. "We see only limited downward potential for soyabean prices in the near to medium term," Oil World said. US soyabean futures fell to six-week lows on Monday, dragged down by continued selling of long positions by funds and by concerns over the strength of the global economy.
The fall from highs reached on May 2 is "premature and mainly based on technical factors rather than fundamentals," Oil World said. Global soyabean harvests in the current 2011/12 season will fall to 116.07 million tonnes from 137.68 million tonnes in 2010/11, it said. This is likely to be caused by expected poor crops in Argentina and Brazil.
"With South American supplies significantly reduced as of end-August 2012, there will be a run on US export supplies - soyabeans, soyameal and oil - for shipment in September-February 2012/13," it said. Near-record soyameal prices will also be required to ration available soyameal supplies, it added.