Though Pak-US relations have been icy, the bilateral trade has increased. However, the increase in trade is more symptomatic of trade being carried on as usual between the two countries at the business-to-business level rather than an indicator of trade soaring to new heights.

Yes, trade has nearly touched a record high of $6 billion in the last fiscal year. But since the increase in trade was of 11 percent, a mere half a billion, it is not significant enough for newspapers to be blaring headlines based on it. To put it in context, the increase in Pak-US bilateral trade was 9 percent of Pakistan’s total increase in trade in FY17.

The increase was driven by a rise in imports which is the case for Pakistan generally. Imports rose by over $600 million across diverse categories from railway parts and turbines to soya beans and raw cotton. Exports played a small but negative role in the change in Pak-US bilateral trade, declining by $34 million mostly due to a $10 million decrease in rice exports.

Recent trends for 5MFY18 have fared somewhat better with exports to US increasing by nearly $100 million whereas imports increased by about $5 million. Value added textiles such as apparel and bed linen drove more than 80 percent of the increase in exports. While soya beans imports remain strong, decrease in propeller/turbines and raw cotton imports have helped restrict overall imports from US.

Technically, five month figures are at a record high of bilateral trade but that is because of Pakistan’s general rise in imports; exports are actually below the ten year average.

However, the rise in 5MFY18 exports to US is a bit more than the rise in exports to non-Sino partners such as Germany (increase in exports by $74 million) and UK (increase in exports by $69 million).

It would appear that despite tweets, exchange of tirades, and lack of word on US’s renewal of GSP expired last December, trade between the two countries is meandering along its set course.