US soyabean exports will increase by nearly 40 percent from September 2012 to February 2013 to compensate for the shortfall in the South American crop which has been hit by drought, German-based analyst Oil World said on Tuesday. "Insufficient South American export supplies of soyabean, soyameal and oil will shift world demand to US origin in September-February 2012/2013," Oil World said.
"Such a huge shift has not been experienced before." Oil World said that US soyabean exports will reach 33.5 million tonnes in the first half of the US crop season, up 9.3 million tonnes or 39 percent from a year earlier. Total world exports of soyabeans in the same period will reach 43.4 million tonnes, Oil World said. It said that exports from leading South American producers - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay - are expected to decline by 9 million tonnes in the same period.
"With our current us soyabean crop estimate of 88.7 million tonnes, we consider it necessary that total US soyabean stocks will be reduced to a multi year low of only 31.5 million tonnes as of end of February 2013," Oil World said. "This is an unusually low inventory and sharply down from 38.7 million tonnes from a year earlier." Oil World said that US crushings are likely to be boosted in response to reduced processing in South America and that it will probably reach 25.5 million tonnes in the period from September 2012 to February 2013. But combined soyabean crushing of the four major exporting countries - US, Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay - would still decline to 56.2 million tonnes in the period from September 2012 to February 2013 compared to 59.5 million tonnes a year earlier.