China is likely to import 57.9 million tonnes of soyabeans in the October 2011/September 2012 season, up 5.6 million tonnes on the year as its demand for oilseeds continues to grow, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
This is up by 1 million tonnes on Oil World's previous import estimate in May. "We have raised our estimates of Chinese oilseed imports and crushings, taking into account larger than expected shipments and purchases in the latest two months," Oil World said. China's May 2012 soyabean imports rose 15.6 percent on the year to 5.2 million tonnes. Oil World now estimates China's soyabean imports in April/September this year will reach 29.71 million tonnes from 26.74 million tonnes in the same time in 2011.
"China has been a very active buyer of oilseeds in recent weeks," it said. The reasons were to raise supplies available to China's crushing industry as demand continues and to compensate for China's reduced soyabean crop, it said. There is also a desire in China to keep soyabean stocks sufficiently large in case weather damages the upcoming US soyabean crop and also to guard against any temporary interruptions in South American exports such as from recent strikes, it said.
"Insufficient domestic production is raising Chinese import requirements of oilseeds and vegetable oils," it said. China is likely to consume 11.28 million tonnes of soyaoil in the 2011/12 season, up from 10.88 million tonnes in 2010/11, Oil World estimates. But China's 2011/12 soyaoil output will remain below consumption at 10.10 million tonnes, despite a rise from 9.49 million tonnes in 2010/11, it said.