Russian share prices are expected to rally after a dismal second quarter on the assumption that they are due for a rebound and that an eventual global upturn will support the local economy, a Reuters poll showed. The poll of 12 analysts taken over the past week pointed to a median end-2012 forecast of 1,535 points for the dollar-traded RTS index, a 17 percent gain from Wednesday's close of 1,306.82.
But that is a 20 percent cut from the 1,913 points forecast in a poll in late March. A sharply declining oil price and the intractable crisis in the euro zone wiped around a quarter off the index's value in the second quarter.
Russian shares are expected to lag Brazil, which are predicted to rise by a quarter by year-end.
The price of Brent crude oil has fallen to around $93 a barrel from more than $125 during the first quarter - dealing a blow to Russia, a top oil exporter. The latest Reuters crude oil poll predicts no upturn.
A poor global economic backdrop has also battered Russian shares, which have been amongst the top performers in recent years. The RTS gained 130 percent in 2009 and rose by a quarter in 2010. But according to some analysts, after a 22 percent fall from its peak in 2011 the market is looking cheap enough that any positive change could support it.